Match Info

Bahrain Darts Masters - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Exhibition World Bahrain (Sakhir)


	Luke Humphries		Nathan Aspinall

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.36	2.75
	1.36	2.8	Watch
	1.36	3.1
	1.4	2.77
	1.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.43)	2.9 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luke Humphries
67.8%

Nathan Aspinall
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luke Humphries has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Nathan Aspinall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luke Humphries than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Humphries will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luke Humphries will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:3

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Preview

Humphries is ranked World Ranking: 2. Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 14.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Humphries won 5.

Now, both players are in good form.

Humphries will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Humphries won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 108:90. (average 5.4:4.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luke Humphries
Darts
15.01.26	Luke Humphries - Abdulla Saeed	6:0 ✺
01.01.26	Luke Humphries - Gian Van Veen	1:5 ✺
30.12.25	Luke Humphries - Kevin Doets	4:1 ✺
28.12.25	Luke Humphries - Gabriel Clemens	4:2 ✺
22.12.25	Luke Humphries - Paul Lim	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLWWW
- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
15.01.26	Nathan Aspinall - Lourence Ilagan	6:4 ✺
29.12.25	Nathan Aspinall - Kevin Doets	3:4 ✺
22.12.25	Nathan Aspinall - Leonard Gates	3:0 ✺
19.12.25	Nathan Aspinall - Lourence Ilagan	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Nathan Aspinall - Jermaine Wattimena	11:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
10.11.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	5:3
06.10.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	2:0
20.09.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	6:4
29.05.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	10:7
24.04.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	6:3
27.03.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	6:5
23.03.25	Nathan Aspinall - Luke Humphries	6:1

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