Match Info

European Tour 11 - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: MVM Dome (Budapest)


	Nathan Aspinall		Chris Dobey

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.86	1.92
	1.87	1.87	Watch
	1.78	1.96
	1.79	1.92	Watch
	1.7	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.87)	1.94 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nathan Aspinall
51.8%

Chris Dobey
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nathan Aspinall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Chris Dobey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nathan Aspinall that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chris Dobey than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chris Dobey could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nathan Aspinall - Chris Dobey Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Aspinall will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:5

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Preview

Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 15. Dobey is ranked World Ranking: 14.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aspinall won 4.

Aspinall is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dobey is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Dobey may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Aspinall won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 65:42. (average 6.5:4.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Nathan Aspinall - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Chris Dobey - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
30.08.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	4:6 ✺
29.08.26	Nathan Aspinall - Ryan Joyce	6:4 ✺
25.08.26	Nathan Aspinall - Thibault Tricole	6:1 ✺
21.07.26	Luke Littler - Nathan Aspinall	11:8 ✺
18.07.26	Nathan Aspinall - Joe Cullen	10:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWLW
- Chris Dobey
Darts
30.08.26	Josh Rock - Chris Dobey	3:6 ✺
29.08.26	Chris Dobey - Tom Sykes	6:5 ✺
26.08.26	Chris Dobey - Cor Dekker	6:2 ✺
25.08.26	Chris Dobey - Ricky Evans	6:4 ✺
29.07.26	Chris Dobey - Chris Landman	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
01.06.25	Nathan Aspinall - Chris Dobey	6:5
15.05.25	Nathan Aspinall - Chris Dobey	6:1
01.05.25	Nathan Aspinall - Chris Dobey	6:3
17.04.25	Chris Dobey - Nathan Aspinall	6:2
27.02.25	Chris Dobey - Nathan Aspinall	5:6
22.11.24	Chris Dobey - Nathan Aspinall	1:6
20.07.23	Chris Dobey - Nathan Aspinall	12:16

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