Match Info

European Tour 11 - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: MVM Dome (Budapest)


	Michael Van Gerwen		Nathan Aspinall

	1	2
	2.00	1.80	Watch
	1.88	1.88
	1.87	1.87	Watch
	1.93	1.84
	1.92	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.87)	1.83 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Van Gerwen
48.8%

Nathan Aspinall
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

54.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Van Gerwen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Nathan Aspinall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:4

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Preview

Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 7. Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 15.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 1.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 135:125. (average 6.8:6.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Nathan Aspinall - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
29.08.26	Michael Van Gerwen - James Hurrell	6:4 ✺
26.08.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Ted Evetts	6:1 ✺
21.07.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Dirk van Duijvenbode	12:14 ✺
19.07.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Andrew Gilding	10:6 ✺
12.07.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLWL
- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
29.08.26	Nathan Aspinall - Ryan Joyce	6:4 ✺
25.08.26	Nathan Aspinall - Thibault Tricole	6:1 ✺
21.07.26	Luke Littler - Nathan Aspinall	11:8 ✺
18.07.26	Nathan Aspinall - Joe Cullen	10:5 ✺
12.07.26	Nathan Aspinall - Krzysztof Ratajski	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
06.03.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	10:8
22.05.25	Nathan Aspinall - Michael Van Gerwen	6:2
15.05.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	3:6
10.04.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	2:6
27.03.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	5:6
13.03.25	Nathan Aspinall - Michael Van Gerwen	4:6
11.04.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	6:4

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