Match Info

World Grand Prix - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Mattioli Arena (Leicester)


	Luke Woodhouse		Nathan Aspinall

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.23	1.64
	2.12	1.68	Watch
	2.11	1.66
	2.17	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.2)	1.68 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 17.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luke Woodhouse
43.9%

Nathan Aspinall
56.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luke Woodhouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Nathan Aspinall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luke Woodhouse than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luke Woodhouse, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nathan Aspinall, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Luke Woodhouse - Nathan Aspinall Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Preview

Format: Double in, Double out.

Woodhouse is ranked World Ranking: 18., and Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 15..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Aspinall could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Our forecast points to a victory for Aspinall in today's match, at odds of 1.65.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Woodhouse has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:16 (averaging 5.5:8 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Luke Woodhouse - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.86%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Nathan Aspinall - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 57.14%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luke Woodhouse
Darts
28.09.26	Luke Littler - Luke Woodhouse	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	Luke Woodhouse - Justin Hood	6:4 ✺
13.09.26	Damon Heta - Luke Woodhouse	6:3 ✺
12.09.26	Luke Woodhouse - William OConnor	6:3 ✺
06.09.26	Luke Woodhouse - Danny Noppert	5:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWLWL
- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
28.09.26	Nathan Aspinall - Kevin Doets	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Luke Littler - Nathan Aspinall	10:9 ✺
18.09.26	Nathan Aspinall - Raymond Smith	6:4 ✺
13.09.26	Damon Heta - Nathan Aspinall	6:5 ✺
13.09.26	Stephen Bunting - Nathan Aspinall	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
25.09.24	Luke Woodhouse - Nathan Aspinall	3:6
13.07.24	Nathan Aspinall - Luke Woodhouse	10:8

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