Match Info

World Matchplay - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Winter Gardens (Blackpool)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox Sports 506
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 1
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports+


	Nathan Aspinall		Wessel Nijman

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.61	2.09	Watch
	2.10	1.63	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.71	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.61)	2.09 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 16.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nathan Aspinall
54.9%

Wessel Nijman
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nathan Aspinall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Wessel Nijman has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nathan Aspinall, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wessel Nijman than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Wessel Nijman, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Nathan Aspinall - Wessel Nijman Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Aspinall will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Nijman will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nijman (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 10:7

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Preview

Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 7. Nijman is ranked World Ranking: 42.

Recent performances by Aspinall have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nijman is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Aspinall is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Aspinall won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 3.5:3).

Last Results with these Odds

Nathan Aspinall - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.16%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
13.07.25	Nathan Aspinall - Danny Noppert	2:6 ✺
12.07.25	Nathan Aspinall - Ricardo Pietreczko	6:4 ✺
05.07.25	Nathan Aspinall - Luke Littler	3:6 ✺
04.07.25	Nathan Aspinall - Radoslav Szaganski	6:4 ✺
28.06.25	Luke Littler - Nathan Aspinall	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWLWW
- Wessel Nijman
Darts
13.07.25	Wessel Nijman - Gerwyn Price	5:6 ✺
12.07.25	Damon Heta - Wessel Nijman	3:6 ✺
11.07.25	Wessel Nijman - Martin Kramer	6:3 ✺
19.06.25	Ryan Joyce - Wessel Nijman	3:6 ✺
19.06.25	Wessel Nijman - Christian Kist	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
01.06.25	Nathan Aspinall - Wessel Nijman	7:6
14.09.24	Wessel Nijman - Nathan Aspinall	Canceled

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