Match Info

Liga Nacional - Round 23

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Valdepeñas		Noia

	1	X	2
	1.93	4.7	2.8
	1.83	5.46	2.76	Watch
	1.94	4.33	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.83)	4.83 ↓ (5.46)	2.8 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Valdepeñas
48.2%

Draw
19%

Noia
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

16.8%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

20.7%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valdepeñas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Noia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valdepeñas than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valdepeñas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Noia than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Noia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Puerta B. (G)	25. Schutt (G)
5. Boyis (C)	7. Altamirano L. (C)
7. Carrasco	31. Churrasco
61. Mateus Torres	77. Lemos R.
16. Naranjo A.	24. Lopez I.
Substitutes
6. Garcia A.	16. Biel
18. Joao	18. Douglas S.
2. Jose Mario	13. Koeman
20. Manzanares A.	5. Montero D.
9. Nicolas M.	6. Monteros I.
25. Pato (G)	21. Peixe (G)
30. Ribeiro	23. Thierry
15. Sinesio
19. Yanez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', Nicolas M. (G),
9', Boyis 🟨,
11', Thierry (G),
16', Lopez I. 🟨,
17', Joao 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
22', (G),
31', Joao (G),
39', Carrasco (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valdepeñas won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Valdepeñas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Valdepeñas has had a series of away games.

Valdepeñas could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Valdepeñas won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:31. (average 2.9:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Valdepeñas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 3:2.8).

Standings

Apertura

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	FS Valdepenas	5	2	2	1	9:9	8
8	Noia	4	2	1	1	12:11	7

Last Results with these Odds

Valdepeñas - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.04%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FS Valdepeñas
Spanish Cup Futsal
20.03.26	Barcelona Alusport - Valdepeñas	7:1 ✺
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
14.03.26	Ribera Navarra - Valdepeñas	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	O Parrulo - Valdepeñas	4:4 ✺
22.02.26	Alzira - Valdepeñas	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey Futsal
18.02.26	Noia - Valdepeñas	4:5 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWTLW
- Noia FS
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
14.03.26	Noia - Xota	4:3 ✺
07.03.26	Jaén Paraíso Interior - Noia	1:1 ✺
03.03.26	Castell de Peñiscola - Noia	1:6 ✺
27.02.26	Noia - Santa Coloma	3:4 ✺
21.02.26	Noia - ElPozo Murcia	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey Futsal
18.02.26	Noia - Valdepeñas	4:5 penalties
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
27.09.25	Noia - Valdepeñas	3:1
26.04.25	Valdepeñas - Noia	4:1
07.12.24	Noia - Valdepeñas	0:1
24.02.24	Noia - Valdepeñas	4:4
14.10.23	Valdepeñas - Noia	2:4
18.02.23	Noia - Valdepeñas	8:2

Upcoming Matches