Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/8-finals

Date: 9 April 2025, Wednesday


	Alcobendas		Nava

	1	X	2
	3.7	10.5	1.4
	4.1	9.8	1.32
	4.54	10.25	1.33	Watch
	4.2	9.5	1.3
	4.65	9.8	1.3	Watch
	4.1	9.8	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.22 ↑ (3.32)	9.94 ↓ (10)	1.33 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcobendas
21.8%

Draw
9.2%

Nava
69%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

9.3%

62.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

9.4%

62.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcobendas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alcobendas's form might have worsened.

Nava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nava's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcobendas than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alcobendas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nava than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nava, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alcobendas - Nava Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:32

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Preview

Recent matches Alcobendas is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nava is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Nava is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alcobendas won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 131:145 (average 26.2:29).

Including matches at home between the teams Alcobendas won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 54:57 (average 27:28.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BM Alcobendas
Spanish Division de Honor Plata Handball
05.04.25	Alser Puerto Sagunto - Alcobendas	25:21 ✺
29.03.25	Cisne - Alcobendas	24:24 ✺
22.03.25	Alcobendas - BM Sinfín	24:24 ✺
08.03.25	Proin - Alcobendas	28:26 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey Handball
05.03.25	Alcobendas - Benidorm	36:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTTLW
- BM Nava
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
04.04.25	Bidasoa Irun - Nava	37:29 ✺
30.03.25	Nava - BM Huesca	31:31 ✺
22.03.25	Barcelona - Nava	40:32 ✺
07.03.25	Nava - Villa de Aranda	27:28 ✺
28.02.25	Ángel Ximénez Puente Genil - Nava	32:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Division de Honor Plata Handball
03.12.22	Nava - Alcobendas	30:21
17.09.22	Alcobendas - Nava	24:29
10.03.18	Alcobendas - Nava	30:28
04.11.17	Nava - Alcobendas	32:33
21.01.17	Nava - Alcobendas	26:23

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