Match Info

Liga ASOBAL - Round 13

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	LaLiga+


	Caserio Ciudad Real		Villa de Aranda

	1	X	2
	1.75	8	2.7	Watch
	1.85	7.6	2.34
	1.88	6.99	2.39	Watch
	1.8	7.5	2.38
	1.83	8.6	2.38	Watch
	1.86	8.5	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.77)	7.87 ↓ (9.7)	2.43 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caserio Ciudad Real
50.4%

Draw
11.7%

Villa de Aranda
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

9.4%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

9.3%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caserio Ciudad Real has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Villa de Aranda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caserio Ciudad Real than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa de Aranda than the current prediction. (+1%)

Caserio Ciudad Real - Villa de Aranda Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:30

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Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 11).

In recent matches, Caserio Ciudad Real has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Villa de Aranda's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Caserio Ciudad Real may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caserio Ciudad Real won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 134:140. (average 26.8:28).

Including home matches between the teams, Caserio Ciudad Real won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 83:77. (average 27.7:25.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caserio Ciudad Real
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
07.12.25	Atlético Valladolid - Caserio Ciudad Real	34:30 ✺
29.11.25	Caserio Ciudad Real - EÓN Alicante	33:23 ✺
22.11.25	Naturhouse La Rioja - Caserio Ciudad Real	38:35 ✺
14.11.25	Caserio Ciudad Real - Torrelavega	29:37 ✺
09.11.25	Quabit Guadalajara - Caserio Ciudad Real	28:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWLLW
- Villa de Aranda
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
10.12.25	Villa de Aranda - Barcelona	28:34 ✺
06.12.25	Villa de Aranda - Bidasoa Irun	32:36 ✺
29.11.25	BM Granollers - Villa de Aranda	28:22 ✺
22.11.25	Villa de Aranda - Morrazo Cangas	28:25 ✺
16.11.25	BM Ciudad Encantada - Villa de Aranda	24:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Division de Honor Plata Handball
25.05.24	Caserio Ciudad Real - Villa de Aranda	20:21
27.04.24	Villa de Aranda - Caserio Ciudad Real	28:21
10.12.23	Caserio Ciudad Real - Villa de Aranda	35:28
13.05.23	Villa de Aranda - Caserio Ciudad Real	35:30
01.04.23	Caserio Ciudad Real - Villa de Aranda	28:28

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