Match Info

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday


	Erlangen		MT Melsungen

	1	X	2
	3.80	8.50	1.47
	3.40	8.50	1.44
	3.70	10.00	1.41
	3.8	8	1.41	Watch
	3.30	9.15	1.41
	3.59	10.50	1.46
	3.55	10.00	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (3.19)	9.24 ↑ (8.1)	1.44 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erlangen
25.7%

Draw
10%

MT Melsungen
64.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

11.2%

60.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

10.3%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erlangen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

MT Melsungen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erlangen than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Erlangen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for MT Melsungen than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for MT Melsungen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Erlangen - MT Melsungen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:30

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Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th and 5th in the Promotion - European League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Erlangen won 0.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Erlangen could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Melsungen has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Bookmakers give the edge to Melsungen for this game.

Our forecast points to a victory for Melsungen in today's match, at odds of 1.47.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Erlangen has recorded 2 wins, 5 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 545:595 (averaging 27.3:29.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Erlangen against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 281:286 goals (averaging 28.1:28.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
5	MT Melsungen	7	4	1	2	218:195	9
10	Erlangen	7	3	1	3	209:208	7

Last Results with these Odds

MT Melsungen - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 60.25%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Erlangen
German Bundesliga Handball
04.10.26	Magdeburg - Erlangen	35:28 ✺
28.09.26	Erlangen - Eisenach	28:19 ✺
German DHB Pokal
24.09.26	Stuttgart - Erlangen	26:29 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
20.09.26	TBV Lemgo - Erlangen	28:33 ✺
13.09.26	Erlangen - Bergischer	29:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.3 LWWWW
- MT Melsungen
EHF Champions League
08.10.26	MT Melsungen - HBC Nantes	28:23 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
03.10.26	MT Melsungen - Hannover-Burgdorf	28:22 ✺
26.09.26	Rhein-Neckar Löwen - MT Melsungen	30:28 ✺
German DHB Pokal
22.09.26	MT Melsungen - Rhein-Neckar Löwen	35:33 OT ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
20.09.26	MT Melsungen - Magdeburg	37:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga Handball
20.12.25	Erlangen - MT Melsungen	26:26
12.09.25	MT Melsungen - Erlangen	32:32
26.04.25	Erlangen - MT Melsungen	25:31
02.11.24	MT Melsungen - Erlangen	32:27
01.05.24	Erlangen - MT Melsungen	31:31
16.10.23	MT Melsungen - Erlangen	32:25
20.04.23	MT Melsungen - Erlangen	31:18

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