Match Info

HLA - Round 6

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday


	Ferlach		HSG Graz

	1	X	2
	1.82	7.6	2.4
	2.01	6.55	2.13	Watch
	1.7	9.1	2.5	Watch
	1.76	8	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.01)	7.81 ↑ (6.55)	2.36 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferlach
49.8%

Draw
11.6%

HSG Graz
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

13.6%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

12.6%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferlach has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferlach's performance.

HSG Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferlach than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HSG Graz than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Ferlach - HSG Graz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:31

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferlach won 2.

Ferlach is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

HSG Graz has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

HSG Graz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ferlach won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 570:549. (average 28.5:27.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferlach won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 293:257. (average 29.3:25.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Ferlach
Austrian NLA Handball
04.10.25	Tirol - Ferlach	33:34 ✺
27.09.25	Ferlach - Krems	28:26 ✺
20.09.25	Ferlach - Hollabrunn	45:36 ✺
12.09.25	Alpla Hard - Ferlach	27:32 ✺
06.09.25	Ferlach - Füchse	28:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.1 WWWWL
- HSG Graz
Austrian NLA Handball
03.10.25	HSG Graz - Alpla Hard	30:38 ✺
27.09.25	Füchse - HSG Graz	21:37 ✺
19.09.25	HSG Graz - Bärnbach Köflach	27:28 ✺
14.09.25	Linz - HSG Graz	38:35 ✺
06.09.25	HSG Graz - Fivers Margareten	32:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian NLA Handball
24.05.25	Ferlach - HSG Graz	37:25
30.04.25	HSG Graz - Ferlach	30:28
12.04.25	HSG Graz - Ferlach	32:29
23.11.24	Ferlach - HSG Graz	27:22
09.02.24	HSG Graz - Ferlach	25:23
23.09.23	Ferlach - HSG Graz	27:26
17.12.22	Ferlach - HSG Graz	34:30

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