Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 10 December 2025, Wednesday


	GWD Minden		Erlangen

	1	X	2
	2.2	7.5	2.1
	2.28	7.6	1.89
	2.44	6.96	1.85	Watch
	2.2	7.5	1.91
	2.24	8.7	1.89
	2.33	8.5	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.04)	7.79 ↑ (6.8)	1.93 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

GWD Minden
40.4%

Draw
11.8%

Erlangen
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

13.4%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

12.9%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

GWD Minden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Erlangen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Erlangen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for GWD Minden than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for GWD Minden, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erlangen than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Erlangen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

GWD Minden - Erlangen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:30

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Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Minden won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Erlangen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Minden won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 440:426. (average 25.9:25.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Minden won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 242:227. (average 26.9:25.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GWD Minden
German Bundesliga Handball
29.11.25	GWD Minden - Magdeburg	21:36 ✺
20.11.25	Stuttgart - GWD Minden	35:26 ✺
14.11.25	GWD Minden - SC DHfK Leipzig	32:26 ✺
08.11.25	GWD Minden - MT Melsungen	27:30 ✺
24.10.25	Eisenach - GWD Minden	33:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWLL
- HC Erlangen
German Bundesliga Handball
06.12.25	Rhein-Neckar Löwen - Erlangen	35:27 ✺
28.11.25	Erlangen - Stuttgart	24:24 ✺
23.11.25	HSV Hamburg - Erlangen	34:26 ✺
16.11.25	Erlangen - TBV Lemgo	24:25 ✺
08.11.25	Erlangen - Eisenach	24:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga Handball
23.04.23	Erlangen - GWD Minden	29:28
22.10.22	GWD Minden - Erlangen	25:32
09.06.22	GWD Minden - Erlangen	22:21
18.09.21	Erlangen - GWD Minden	30:22
18.05.21	GWD Minden - Erlangen	30:29
19.12.20	Erlangen - GWD Minden	21:21
15.12.19	GWD Minden - Erlangen	26:29

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