Match Info

Meistriliiga - Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday


	Kehra		Viljandi

	1	X	2
	1.84	8.8	2.25
				Watch
	1.8	8	2.25
	1.81	8	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.81)	8.27 ↑ (8)	2.25 (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kehra
49.3%

Draw
10.8%

Viljandi
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

11.1%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

10%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kehra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Viljandi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kehra than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kehra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Viljandi than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

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Preview

Viljandi leads series 1-0. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kehra won 2.

Kehra is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Viljandi has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Viljandi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Viljandi has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Kehra will win today's game, with odds of 1.81.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kehra won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 469:570. (average 23.5:28.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kehra won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 299:331. (average 24.9:27.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Viljandi	3	3	0	0	87:78	6
3	Kehra	4	2	0	2	114:111	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Kehra
Estonian Meistriliiga Handball
21.04.26	Pölva Serviti - Kehra	35:24 ✺
15.04.26	Pölva Serviti - Kehra	22:30 ✺
08.04.26	Kehra - Tapa	35:28 ✺
01.04.26	Viimsi - Kehra	28:45 ✺
11.03.26	Kehra - Viljandi	23:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.4 LWWWW
- Viljandi HC
Estonian Meistriliiga Handball
28.04.26	Mistra - Viljandi	30:25 ✺
22.04.26	Mistra - Viljandi	23:22 ✺
16.04.26	Mistra - Viljandi	28:20 ✺
08.04.26	Pölva Serviti - Viljandi	39:25 ✺
11.03.26	Kehra - Viljandi	23:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga Handball
11.03.26	Kehra - Viljandi	23:22
26.11.25	Kehra - Viljandi	28:27
13.11.24	Kehra - Viljandi	26:27
24.04.24	Kehra - Viljandi	26:34
21.04.24	Viljandi - Kehra	29:21
14.02.24	Kehra - Viljandi	27:28
20.12.23	Viljandi - Kehra	22:19

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