Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 13

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: Sparbanken Skåne Arena (Lund)


	Lugi		Varberg

	1	X	2
	1.98	7.6	2.25
	2.01	6.88	2.19	Watch
	1.91	7.5	2.2
	1.94	8.5	2.17
	1.88	8	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.77)	7.7 ↓ (8)	2.2 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugi
46.8%

Draw
11.8%

Varberg
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

11.2%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

10.3%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Varberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugi than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varberg than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Varberg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lugi - Varberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Lugi will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:28

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugi won 3.

Lugi has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Varberg is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Lugi won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 206:179. (average 29.4:25.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugi won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 89:73. (average 29.7:24.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lugi HF
Swedish Allsvenskan Handball
14.12.25	Aranäs - Lugi	31:38 ✺
07.12.25	Lugi - Tyresö	44:27 ✺
29.11.25	IFK Ystad - Lugi	23:35 ✺
23.11.25	Lugi - Drott	38:33 ✺
16.11.25	Lugi - Vinslovs	40:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWW
- HK Varberg
Swedish Allsvenskan Handball
17.12.25	Tumba - Varberg	28:33 ✺
10.12.25	Varberg - Drott	42:24 ✺
05.12.25	Vinslovs - Varberg	24:35 ✺
26.11.25	Varberg - Tumba	22:26 ✺
22.11.25	Enköping - Varberg	20:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan Handball
15.02.25	Varberg - Lugi	31:31
25.11.24	Lugi - Varberg	23:27
Swedish Elitserien Handball
02.02.21	Varberg - Lugi	29:32
24.10.20	Lugi - Varberg	37:22
06.03.20	Varberg - Lugi	25:26
01.11.19	Lugi - Varberg	29:24
07.09.19	Varberg - Lugi	21:28

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