Match Info

European League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 1
Norway	Viaplay
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium


	MT Melsungen		Porto

	1	X	2
	1.35	9	3.8	Watch
	1.48	9.5	3.4
	1.42	9.6	3.45
	1.36	8.22	4.17
	1.36	9	3.75
	1.34	10.2	4.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.45)	9.25 ↑ (9.15)	3.79 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

MT Melsungen
66%

Draw
9.9%

Porto
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

9.8%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

9.4%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MT Melsungen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for MT Melsungen than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+3%)

MT Melsungen - Porto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 - Melsungen (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melsungen (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:28

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Lineups


21. Arnarsson A.	12. Abrahamsson S.
6. Balenciaga E.	86. Brandao R.
71. Darmoul M.	18. Costa V.
25. Forsell-Schefvert O.	41. Dahlin M.
40. Guardiola I.	19. Diocou M.
11. Ignatow D.	90. Duarte G.
73. Kastening T.	21. Fernandes L.
10. Kristopans D.	3. Gomes J.
20. Kulesh U.	16. Grbavac A.
7. Mandic D.	5. Gunnarsson T.
2. Marchan R.	44. Hurtado J.
33. Mensing A.	24. Martinez A.
32. Palasics K.	71. Oliveira P.
16. Simic N.	15. Salina D.
8. Sipos A.	14. Sousa R.
19. Stefansson R.	9. Valera P.

Preview

First leg.

Recent performances by Melsungen have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Porto is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Melsungen is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Melsungen won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 95:84. (average 31.7:28).

Including home match between the teams, Melsungen won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 32:27.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MT Melsungen
German Bundesliga Handball
24.04.26	Flensburg-Handewitt - MT Melsungen	40:30 ✺
10.04.26	MT Melsungen - GWD Minden	32:28 ✺
EHF European League
07.04.26	MT Melsungen - Fredericia	35:26 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
04.04.26	TBV Lemgo - MT Melsungen	26:27 ✺
EHF European League
31.03.26	Fredericia - MT Melsungen	35:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWWWL
- FC Porto Handball
Portuguese Andebol 1
24.04.26	Águas Santas - Porto	24:41 ✺
11.04.26	Porto - Benfica	42:32 ✺
28.03.26	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	30:33 ✺
14.03.26	Avanca - Porto	30:41 ✺
EHF European League
10.03.26	Skanderborg - Porto	29:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

EHF European League
19.11.24	MT Melsungen - Porto	32:27
08.10.24	Porto - MT Melsungen	24:29
Club Friendly Hanbdall
16.08.24	Porto - MT Melsungen	33:34

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