Match Info

European League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2


	Porto		MT Melsungen

	1	X	2
	1.78	8	2.55	Watch
	1.84	7.8	2.33
	1.93	6.75	2.32
	1.83	7.5	2.25
	1.91	8.8	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2)	7.77 ↓ (8)	2.33 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
49.1%

Draw
11.7%

MT Melsungen
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

11.5%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

11.6%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

MT Melsungen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for MT Melsungen than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Porto - MT Melsungen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melsungen (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:30

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Lineups


12. Abrahamsson S.	21. Arnarsson A.
86. Brandao R.	6. Balenciaga E.
18. Costa V.	71. Darmoul M.
41. Dahlin M.	18. Drosten F.
19. Diocou M.	25. Forsell-Schefvert O.
90. Duarte G.	40. Guardiola I.
21. Fernandes L.	11. Ignatow D.
3. Gomes J.	73. Kastening T.
16. Grbavac A.	10. Kristopans D.
5. Gunnarsson T.	7. Mandic D.
44. Hurtado J.	2. Marchan R.
24. Martinez A.	33. Mensing A.
71. Oliveira P.	32. Palasics K.
15. Salina D.	16. Simic N.
14. Sousa R.	8. Sipos A.
9. Valera P.	19. Stefansson R.

Preview

First leg result: 23-28. Second leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Porto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 107:123. (average 26.8:30.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 57:63. (average 28.5:31.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto Handball
Portuguese Andebol 1
02.05.26	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	36:29 ✺
EHF European League
28.04.26	MT Melsungen - Porto	28:23 ✺
Portuguese Andebol 1
24.04.26	Águas Santas - Porto	24:41 ✺
11.04.26	Porto - Benfica	42:32 ✺
28.03.26	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	30:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWWL
- MT Melsungen
German Bundesliga Handball
01.05.26	Rhein-Neckar Löwen - MT Melsungen	30:22 ✺
EHF European League
28.04.26	MT Melsungen - Porto	28:23 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
24.04.26	Flensburg-Handewitt - MT Melsungen	40:30 ✺
10.04.26	MT Melsungen - GWD Minden	32:28 ✺
EHF European League
07.04.26	MT Melsungen - Fredericia	35:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

EHF European League
28.04.26	MT Melsungen - Porto	28:23
19.11.24	MT Melsungen - Porto	32:27
08.10.24	Porto - MT Melsungen	24:29
Club Friendly Hanbdall
16.08.24	Porto - MT Melsungen	33:34

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