Match Info

EHF Euro - 5th-6th places - 5th place

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Jyske Bank Boxen (Herning)

Referee: Palsson A. (Ice)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Voyo
Czech-republic	CT sport Plus
Hungary	M4 Sport
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1


	Portugal		Sweden

	1	X	2
	2.8	8.5	1.7	Watch
	2.7	8.2	1.64	Watch
	2.84	7.95	1.71	Watch
	2.75	8.5	1.67
	2.66	9	1.68	Watch
	2.75	8.5	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (3.36)	8.44 ↓ (9.66)	1.69 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 64.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portugal
33.8%

Draw
11%

Sweden
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

9.6%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

9.7%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portugal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portugal's performance.

Sweden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sweden might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portugal than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portugal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sweden than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sweden could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	8.3%	58.3%

Portugal - Sweden Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Portugal will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Sweden will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sweden: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (1.84) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sweden will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:33

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Lineups


25. Areia A.	20. Appelgren M.
86. Brandao R.	29. Aspenback E.
23. Branquinho D.	32. Bergendahl O.
41. Capdeville G.	2. Carlsbogard J.
95. Cavalcanti G.	19. Claar F.
26. Costa F.	5. Darj M.
79. Costa M.	24. Gottfridsson J.
21. Fernandes L.	42. Johansson E.
29. Ferreira J.	13. Karlsson S.
82. Frade L.	27. Mansson A.
66. Gomes J.	6. Moller F.
8. Iturriza V.	12. Palicka A.
20. Neves M.	11. Pettersson D.
13. Rocha S.	25. Roganovic N.
14. Sousa R.	33. Sandell L.
99. Valerio D.	15. Wanne H.
Coaches
. Pereira P.	. Apelgren M.

Preview

Portugal has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sweden is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sweden may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sweden is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portugal won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 163:163. (average 32.6:32.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portugal handball
Handball European Championship
28.01.26	Spain - Portugal	27:35 ✺
26.01.26	Portugal - Norway	35:35 ✺
24.01.26	France - Portugal	46:38 ✺
22.01.26	Germany - Portugal	32:30 ✺
20.01.26	Denmark - Portugal	29:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34.9 WTLLW
- Sweden handball
Handball European Championship
28.01.26	Switzerland - Sweden	21:34 ✺
27.01.26	Sweden - Hungary	32:32 ✺
25.01.26	Iceland - Sweden	35:27 ✺
23.01.26	Slovenia - Sweden	31:35 ✺
21.01.26	Sweden - Croatia	33:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Handball World Championship
22.01.25	Sweden - Portugal	37:37
Handball European Championship
21.01.24	Sweden - Portugal	40:33
Handball World Championship
22.01.23	Sweden - Portugal	32:30
Olympic Games - Handball
27.07.21	Sweden - Portugal	29:28
Handball European Championship
17.01.20	Portugal - Sweden	35:25

Portugal - Sweden: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide