Match Info

Starligue - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports 1


	Saint-Raphael		Fenix Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.15	8	2.15
	1.99	7.8	2.13
	1.23	8.19	6.65	Watch
	1.99	9	2.06	Watch
	2.15	8	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.74)	8.2 ↑ (8.07)	3.03 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 63.25

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Raphael
53.8%

Draw
12.5%

Fenix Toulouse
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

11.4%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

11.4%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Raphael has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Fenix Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Raphael than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenix Toulouse than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Saint Raphael - Fenix Toulouse Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:33

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saint-Raphael won 2.

Saint-Raphael has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Toulouse has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Saint-Raphael may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Saint-Raphael won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 624:597. (average 31.2:29.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Saint-Raphael won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 350:310. (average 31.8:28.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Saint-Raphael Var HB
French Starligue Handball
05.10.25	HBC Nantes - Saint-Raphael	46:32 ✺
Coupe de France Handball
30.09.25	Massy Essonne - Saint-Raphael	38:36 ✺
French Starligue Handball
26.09.25	Saint-Raphael - Tremblay	30:36 ✺
19.09.25	Selestat AHB - Saint-Raphael	29:33 ✺
14.09.25	Saint-Raphael - Paris Saint-Germain	25:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLWL
- Fenix Toulouse
French Starligue Handball
03.10.25	Fenix Toulouse - Pays dAix	25:29 ✺
28.09.25	Chambery SH - Fenix Toulouse	31:33 ✺
19.09.25	Fenix Toulouse - Chartres	41:29 ✺
14.09.25	HBC Nantes - Fenix Toulouse	28:22 ✺
05.09.25	Tremblay - Fenix Toulouse	32:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Starligue Handball
24.05.25	Saint-Raphael - Fenix Toulouse	36:26
02.11.24	Fenix Toulouse - Saint-Raphael	27:36
17.04.24	Saint-Raphael - Fenix Toulouse	30:30
26.10.23	Fenix Toulouse - Saint-Raphael	34:29
05.05.23	Fenix Toulouse - Saint-Raphael	33:32
20.11.22	Saint-Raphael - Fenix Toulouse	36:33
Coupe de France Handball
15.11.22	Saint-Raphael - Fenix Toulouse	37:36

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