Match Info

Champions League

Date: 15 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Hala Legionów (Kielce)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Eurosport 2
Hungary	Sport 1
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Eurosport 1
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2


	Vive Kielce		HBC Nantes

	1	X	2
	1.9	8.5	2.35	Watch
	1.79	8.2	2.39	Watch
	1.97	6.05	2.49	Watch
	1.94	9.75	2.36	Watch
	1.76	9	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.71)	8.3 ↓ (8.5)	2.44 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 64.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vive Kielce
50.2%

Draw
11.3%

HBC Nantes
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

11.2%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

12.4%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vive Kielce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vive Kielce's form might have worsened.

HBC Nantes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting HBC Nantes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vive Kielce than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vive Kielce, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HBC Nantes than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for HBC Nantes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Vive Kielce - HBC Nantes Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Kielce will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Nantes will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nantes: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 - Nantes (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): HBC Nantes will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Kielce (votes: 2 - 20%). Nantes (votes: 8 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:33

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Lineups


16. Cordalija B.	18. Abdi A.
24. Dujshebaev D.	9. Avelange T.
98. Jarosiewicz P.	16. Biosca I.
42. Kaddah H.	3. Briet T.
50. Karalek A.	15. Gaber M.
11. Kounkoud B.	2. Lagarde R.
15. Maqueda J.	4. Minne A.
97. Monar T.	17. Noam L.
1. Morawski A.	8. Nyateu O.
23. Moryto A.	19. Odriozola K.
99. Nahi D.	10. Ovnicek R.
93. Rogulski L.	1. Pesic I.
9. Sicko S.	24. Peyrabout Y.
88. Vlah A.	6. Tarrafeta I.
	11. Tournat N.
	5. Yoshida S.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kielce won 2.

Kielce has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nantes is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Kielce could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Kielce won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 177:172. (average 29.5:28.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Kielce won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 99:95. (average 33:31.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KS Vive Kielce
Polish Superliga Handball
12.10.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Vive Kielce	24:45 ✺
EHF Champions League
09.10.25	Veszprém - Vive Kielce	35:33 ✺
Polish Superliga Handball
04.10.25	Vive Kielce - MMTS Kwidzyn	38:23 ✺
27.09.25	Vive Kielce - Piotrkowianin Piotrków	35:27 ✺
EHF Champions League
25.09.25	Vive Kielce - Füchse Berlin	32:37 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLWWL
- HBC Nantes
French Starligue Handball
12.10.25	USAM Nimes - HBC Nantes	31:38 ✺
EHF Champions League
08.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - HBC Nantes	28:39 ✺
French Starligue Handball
05.10.25	HBC Nantes - Saint-Raphael	46:32 ✺
28.09.25	Dijon - HBC Nantes	34:48 ✺
EHF Champions League
24.09.25	HBC Nantes - Kolstad	39:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

EHF Champions League
26.02.25	Vive Kielce - HBC Nantes	28:28
18.09.24	HBC Nantes - Vive Kielce	23:20
23.02.23	HBC Nantes - Vive Kielce	30:33
14.09.22	Vive Kielce - HBC Nantes	40:33
07.04.21	Vive Kielce - HBC Nantes	31:34
31.03.21	HBC Nantes - Vive Kielce	24:25

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