Match Info

Champions League

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Hala Legionów (Kielce)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	Sport 2
Iceland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Eurosport 1


	Vive Kielce		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	1.57	9	3.2	Watch
	1.75	11	2.45
	1.54	8.4	3.05
	1.54	8.13	3.43
	1.53	8	2.88
	1.63	9.6	3.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.71)	9.02 ↑ (8.89)	3.02 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 65.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vive Kielce
58.6%

Draw
10.4%

Sporting Lisbon
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

10.5%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

11.2%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vive Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vive Kielce than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vive Kielce that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Lisbon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Vive Kielce - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kielce will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:32

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Lineups


24. Dujshebaev D.	5. Alvarez C.
22. Ferlin K.	92. Aly M.
98. Jarosiewicz P.	3. Berlin E.
4. Jedraszczyk P.	22. Branquinho D.
50. Karalek A.	6. Costa F.
11. Kounkoud B.	79. Costa M.
44. Latosinski M.	19. Gassama M.
15. Maqueda J.	26. Graca F.
97. Monar T.	8. Gurri J.
1. Morawski A.	20. Kristensen A.
23. Moryto A.	9. Martinez P.
99. Nahi D.	44. Moga C.
5. Olejniczak M.	2. Oliviera E.
93. Rogulski L.	13. Rocha S.
9. Sicko S.	93. Romero V.
88. Vlah A.	17. Thorkelsson O.

Preview

Kielce is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Sporting is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Kielce is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Kielce will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kielce won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 37:41.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KS Vive Kielce
Polish Superliga Handball
01.03.26	Wisła Płock - Vive Kielce	32:31 penalties ✺
EHF Champions League
26.02.26	Füchse Berlin - Vive Kielce	31:33 ✺
Polish Superliga Handball
21.02.26	Vive Kielce - Zagłębie Lubin	43:26 ✺
EHF Champions League
19.02.26	Vive Kielce - Veszprém	36:35 ✺
Polish Superliga Handball
14.02.26	MMTS Kwidzyn - Vive Kielce	25:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LWWWW
- Sporting Lisbon Handball
Portuguese Andebol 1
01.03.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	40:27 ✺
EHF Champions League
26.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Aalborg	35:33 ✺
Portuguese Andebol 1
22.02.26	Avanca - Sporting Lisbon	30:40 ✺
EHF Champions League
19.02.26	HBC Nantes - Sporting Lisbon	38:27 ✺
Portuguese Andebol 1
14.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Póvoa	42:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

EHF Champions League
18.09.25	Sporting Lisbon - Vive Kielce	41:37

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