Match Info

MHL

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday


	AKM Novomoskovsk		Tolpar

	1	X	2
	6.78	5.62	1.33
	6.35	5.65	1.34	Watch
	5.25	4.5	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.13 ↑ (5.4)	5.26 ↓ (5.7)	1.36 ↓ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AKM Novomoskovsk
15%

Draw
17.5%

Tolpar
67.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

16.4%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.2%

15.4%

70.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AKM Novomoskovsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Tolpar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AKM Novomoskovsk than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

AKM Novomoskovsk - Tolpar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Skryabin N. (G)	30. Povarov M. (G)
79. Ponomaryov D.	16. Khusainov R.
4. Pilyugin K.	23. Khafzetdinov A.
18. Bogdanov N.	97. Faizov A.
10. Kazharin I.	37. Zagrebin M.
93. Domrachev Y.	28. Akhsyanov B.
Line 2
37. Gilmanov D.	36. Gunkin Y.
99. Vagizov R.	24. Karasyov M.
91. Ryzhkov A.	18. Kireyev R.
15. Gordyukov A.	67. Khabibullin A.
75. Orlov D.	74. Adamyan A.
Line 3
3. Badikov A.	86. Volkov D.
69. Rostkov V.	62. Konovalov D.
7. Sapogov M.	63. Makarkin A.
72. Boyarkin G.	26. Degtyarev M.
80. Olikh A.	47. Fogelnest M.
Line 4
11. Gendunov E.	58. Plotnikov D.
24. Kulikov A.	98. Zayets D.
17. Chebotayev K.	10. Shermakov
28. Provotorov V.	87. Buzdyganov V.
9. Onishchenko M.	78. Zhuk A.
Substitutes
35. Mandrykin K. (G)	99. Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
11:58, 0 - 1, Faizov A. (G), Zagrebin M. (A), Akhsyanov B. (A2)
12:57, 0 - 2, Buzdyganov V. (G), Konovalov D. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
05:35, 0 - 3, Faizov A. (G), Akhsyanov B. (A),
13:05, 1 - 3, Olikh A. (G), Ryzhkov A. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
04:53, 1 - 4, Makarkin A. (G), Khafzetdinov A. (A),
09:39, 1 - 5, Faizov A. (G), Zagrebin M. (A), Akhsyanov B. (A2)
16:52, 2 - 5, Sapogov M. (G), Olikh A. (A), Boyarkin G. (A2)

Preview

AKM Novomoskovsk is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Tolpar has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Tolpar has had a series of home games.

In this match, Tolpar is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, AKM Novomoskovsk won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:24. (average 2.5:6).

Including home matches between the teams, AKM Novomoskovsk won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 2.5:4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AKM Novomoskovsk
MHL
15.10.25	Ladya Togliatti - AKM Novomoskovsk	4:0 ✺
14.10.25	Ladya Togliatti - AKM Novomoskovsk	5:1 ✺
10.10.25	AKM Novomoskovsk - Sibirskie Snaypery	2:5 ✺
09.10.25	AKM Novomoskovsk - Sibirskie Snaypery	1:3 ✺
03.10.25	AKM Novomoskovsk - Loko-76	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
14.10.25	Tolpar - Kuznetskie Medvedi	3:4 penalties ✺
13.10.25	Tolpar - Kuznetskie Medvedi	3:5 ✺
10.10.25	Tolpar - Omskye Yastreby	2:3 ✺
09.10.25	Tolpar - Omskye Yastreby	4:3 OT ✺
04.10.25	Tyumensky Legion - Tolpar	0:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

MHL
20.02.25	Tolpar - AKM Novomoskovsk	8:4
19.02.25	Tolpar - AKM Novomoskovsk	8:1
02.11.24	AKM Novomoskovsk - Tolpar	3:4
01.11.24	AKM Novomoskovsk - Tolpar	2:4

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