Match Info

National League - Round 30

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Raiffeisen Arena (Porrentruy)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Switzerland	MySports, MySports


	Ajoie		Fribourg-Gottéron

	1	X	2
	4.3	4.75	1.61	Watch
	4.1	4.65	1.65
	3.67	4.2	1.71
	4.04	4.5	1.68	Watch
	3.8	4.33	1.57
	4.19	4.5	1.71	Watch
	3.85	4.4	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.99 ↓ (4.47)	4.48 ↓ (4.56)	1.65 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajoie
23.2%

Draw
20.7%

Fribourg-Gottéron
56.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

20.5%

58.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

20.6%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajoie has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Fribourg-Gottéron has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajoie than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fribourg-Gottéron than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Ajoie - Fribourg Gottéron Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5, OT - Ajoie (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Ajoie (3.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajoie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Keller A. (G)	1. Galley L. (G)
15. Christe G.	96. Glauser A.
3. Honka A.	77. Streule M.
32. Turkulainen J.	9. Sorensen M.
8. Devos P.	95. De La Rose J.
74. Nattinen J.	73. Schmid S.
Line 2
90. Fischer J.	33. Johnson L.
26. Fey K. (C)	12. Nemeth P.
19. Wick J.	22. Bertschy C.
23. Gauthier F.	21. Borgstrom H.
71. Mottet K.	17. Biasca A.
Line 3
2. Pilet V.	27. Rathgeb Y.
91. Berthoud Y.	3. Kapla M.
87. Pedretti M.	86. Sprunger J. (C)
41. Bellemare P-E.	23. Walser S.
95. Bozon K.	97. Marchon N.
Line 4
37. Nussbaumer A.	5. Seiler S.
13. Robin L.	79. Etter K.
70. Romanenghi M.	93. Dorthe J.
20. Cormier C.	42. Rau K.
Substitutes
1. Conz B. (G)	61. Gerber J.
78. Sopa K.	35. Neuenschwander E. (G)
Coaches
. Ireland G.	. Ronnberg R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
08:14, Kapla M. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 3)
04:17, 0 - 1, Glauser A. (G), Schmid S. (A),
10:20, 0 - 2, Kapla M. (G), Borgstrom H. (A),
10:40, Fey K. (2 min),
10:40, Seiler S. (2 min),
10:40, Seiler S. (2 min),
13:44, 1 - 2, Cormier C. (G), Christe G. (A),
16:51, Bozon K. (2 min),
17:37, Rathgeb Y. (2 min),
17:37, Pilet V. (2 min),
17:37, Gauthier F. (2 min),
18:36, 1 - 3, Sorensen M. (G), Borgstrom H. (A), Kapla M. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
01:53, 1 - 4, Marchon N. (G), Sprunger J. (A), Johnson L. (A2)
02:55, Streule M. (2 min),
18:14, 1 - 5, Biasca A. (G),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone National League (Play Out: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajoie won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ajoie may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Fribourg-Gottéron has had a series of home games.

In this match, Fribourg-Gottéron is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajoie won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 32:78. (average 1.6:3.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajoie won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:30. (average 1.4:3).

Last Results with these Odds

Ajoie - the odds 4.47 are the expected chance of winning is 20.87%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Ajoie
Swiss National League Hockey
29.11.25	Ajoie - EV Zug	3:2 penalties ✺
28.11.25	EHC Kloten - Ajoie	2:3 ✺
25.11.25	Davos - Ajoie	8:0 ✺
21.11.25	ZSC Lions - Ajoie	2:3 ✺
19.11.25	Ajoie - Biel	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 37.4 WWLWL
- HC Fribourg-Gotteron
Swiss National League Hockey
03.12.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Rapperswil-Jona Lakers	2:4 ✺
29.11.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Bern	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Biel - Fribourg-Gottéron	2:3 ✺
25.11.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Genève-Servette	2:5 ✺
21.11.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Lausanne HC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss National League Hockey
12.11.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Ajoie	5:1
26.09.25	Ajoie - Fribourg-Gottéron	2:5
17.01.25	Ajoie - Fribourg-Gottéron	1:2
08.12.24	Fribourg-Gottéron - Ajoie	5:0
22.10.24	Ajoie - Fribourg-Gottéron	1:3
17.09.24	Fribourg-Gottéron - Ajoie	4:1
24.02.24	Fribourg-Gottéron - Ajoie	0:1

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