Match Info

MHL - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Nagorny Arena (Nizhny Novgorod)


	Chaika		Ladya Togliatti

	1	X	2
	1.47	5.27	5.9
	1.41	4.9	5.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.67)	5.09 ↑ (4.3)	5.81 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaika
65.3%

Draw
18.5%

Ladya Togliatti
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

21.4%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

22.5%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chaika's performance.

Ladya Togliatti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ladya Togliatti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaika than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chaika that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ladya Togliatti than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ladya Togliatti could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chaika - Ladya Togliatti Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
74. Sabitov M. (G)	70. Nikonovich M. (G)
44. Yatsenko A.	76. Zakharenkov A.
28. Gavrilov L. (C)	14. Lineitsev D. (A)
17. Salnikov L.	37. Fyodorov V.
12. Mishin V.	90. Lisenkov M. (C)
97. Kulyabin A.	91. Saranov P.
Line 2
51. Izmailov N.	6. Morozov A.
19. Anisimov A.	12. Kalimullin M.
71. Laptev V.	9. Vorfolomeyev M. (A)
15. Matyuk A.	75. Krikunenko A.
9. Skvortsov S.	7. Pavlov M.
Line 3
23. Guryev S.	96. Ivonin S.
81. Mullerov I.	95. Kharitonov G.
93. Pugachyov G. (A)	17. Guryev V.
41. Fyodorov V.	67. Malkov S.
91. Opolinsky M.	68. Toft M.
Line 4
76. Belyakov K.	5. Petrov A.
8. Kozin V.	71. Merkesov Y.
7. Glazunov M. (A)	80. Gorshkov F.
5. Gornov S.	24. Abramov Y.
77. Stafeyev G.	10. Umerov R.
Substitutes
30. Gritsenko Y. (G)	27. Gorbenko Y. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (4 - 0)
01:24, 1 - 0, Pugachyov G. (G), Mullerov I. (A),
03:23, 2 - 0, Skvortsov S. (G), Anisimov A. (A), Mullerov I. (A2)
04:42, 3 - 0, Stafeyev G. (G), Gornov S. (A),
07:16, 4 - 0, Mishin V. (G), Anisimov A. (A), Matyuk A. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
05:32, 5 - 0, Matyuk A. (G), Yatsenko A. (A), Laptev V. (A2)
14:56, 6 - 0, Mullerov I. (G), Mishin V. (A),
3rd Period (2 - 0)
01:55, 7 - 0, Mishin V. (G), Skvortsov S. (A), Matyuk A. (A2)
05:46, 8 - 0, Yatsenko A. (G), Opolinsky M. (A), Fyodorov V. (A2)

Preview

Chaika (MHL) leads series 1-0. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chaika won 4.

In recent matches, Chaika has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ladya's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Chaika is the team to beat.

We predict that Chaika will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chaika won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 65:45. (average 3.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Chaika won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 32:19. (average 3.2:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chaika Nizhny Novgorod
MHL
26.03.26	Ladya Togliatti - Chaika	3:6 ✺
22.03.26	Chaika - Irbis Kazan	1:2 penalties ✺
18.03.26	Irbis Kazan - Chaika	4:1 ✺
15.03.26	Chaika - Belye Medvedi	6:1 ✺
14.03.26	Chaika - Belye Medvedi	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLLWW
- Ladya Togliatti
MHL
26.03.26	Ladya Togliatti - Chaika	3:6 ✺
22.03.26	Sibirskie Snaypery - Ladya Togliatti	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Sibirskie Snaypery - Ladya Togliatti	3:1 ✺
15.03.26	Sputnik Almetyevsk - Ladya Togliatti	4:10 ✺
06.03.26	Ladya Togliatti - Irbis Kazan	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

MHL
26.03.26	Ladya Togliatti - Chaika	3:6
04.03.26	Ladya Togliatti - Chaika	0:2
06.10.25	Chaika - Ladya Togliatti	4:3
28.12.24	Ladya Togliatti - Chaika	2:3 OT
09.12.24	Chaika - Ladya Togliatti	2:4
14.02.24	Ladya Togliatti - Chaika	3:4 OT
05.01.24	Chaika - Ladya Togliatti	6:2

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