Match Info

EUROPE: Alps Hockey League - Round 9

Date: 20 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadio Olimpico del Ghiaccio (Cortina d'Ampezzo)


	Cortina		Celje

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.8	5.15
	1.45	4.72	4.55
	1.48	4.9	4.99	Watch
	1.4	5	5.5
	1.44	5	5.1
	1.41	4.8	5.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.45)	4.87 ↑ (4.8)	5.07 ↑ (4.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cortina
63.4%

Draw
18.7%

Celje
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

18.8%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

16.1%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cortina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cortina than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cortina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Cortina - Celje Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Hawkey H. (G)	30. Gajsek J. (G)
3. Forte F.	68. Bohinc R.
44. Parini G.	6. Hebar T.
24. Barnabo L.	13. Bukovec M.
93. Castlunger M.	83. Kumanovic L.
5. Sanna M.	18. Jakupovic A.
Line 2
12. Panciera G.	21. Bernard J.
19. Ushnev N.	3. Sirovnik N.
23. Pompanin F.	16. Mintautiskis M.
76. Adami F.	71. Sodja Zalokar G.
29. Felicetti L.	33. Sotlar J.
Line 3
67. Pietroniro K.	11. Grahut N.
20. Colli A.	98. Kuret B.
21. Lacedelli R.	15. Sojer M.
22. Lehtonen W.	36. Tsarkovskyi D.
59. Saha M.	22. Panasenko B.
Line 4
72. Faloppa D.	12. Groznik M.
18. Constantini L.	29. Vodlan L.
97. Lacedelli G.	26. Secen N.
65. Toffoli G.	14. Zezelj G.
36. De Luca A.
Substitutes
90. Lancedelli S. (G)	1. Sodja Zalokar T. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
08:00, 1 - 0, Saha M. (G), Lehtonen W. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
05:58, 1 - 1, Bukovec M. (G), Sodja Zalokar G. (A),
13:16, 2 - 1, Saha M. (G), Ushnev N. (A),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
18:48, 2 - 2, Panasenko B. (G), Sodja Zalokar G. (A), Sotlar J. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (0 - 1)
1, (Penalty Shot),
1, (Penalty Shot),
2, (Penalty Shot),
2, (Penalty Shot),
3, (Penalty Shot),
3, (Penalty Shot),
4, (Penalty Shot),
4, (Penalty Shot),
5, (Penalty Shot),
5, Hebar T. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

Cortina is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Celje is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Celje could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Cortina is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Cortina won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12:4 (average 6:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Cortina won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SG Cortina
Alps Hockey League
17.10.24	Zell am See - Cortina	4:1 ✺
12.10.24	Acroni Jesenice - Cortina	4:2 ✺
10.10.24	Cortina - Sisak	4:8 ✺
06.10.24	Unterland Cavaliers - Cortina	5:4 OT ✺
03.10.24	Cortina - Vipiteno	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW
- HK Celje
Alps Hockey League
17.10.24	Celje - Vipiteno	4:6 ✺
12.10.24	Gherdëina - Celje	2:3 OT ✺
Slovenian Hokejska Liga
10.10.24	Celje - Acroni Jesenice	6:2 ✺
Alps Hockey League
05.10.24	Celje - Kitzbühel	4:2 ✺
03.10.24	Zell am See - Celje	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.7 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Alps Hockey League
01.11.23	Cortina - Celje	5:3
17.10.23	Celje - Cortina	1:7

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