Match Info

NMHL

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday


	Ermak Angarsk		Samara

	1	X	2
	1.28	5.65	7.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.4)	5.65 ↑ (5)	7.17 ↑ (5.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ermak Angarsk
71.2%

Draw
16.1%

Samara
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

18.2%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

19.5%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ermak Angarsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ermak Angarsk's performance.

Samara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ermak Angarsk than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ermak Angarsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samara than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Samara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ermak Angarsk - Samara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
05:13, 1 - 0, Starovoitov A. (G),
16:38, 1 - 1, Ilyin A. (G), Meier D. (A), Zhomov A. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 2)
04:06, 1 - 2, Borodin N. (G), Polyakov I. (A),
07:34, 2 - 2, Starovoitov A. (G), Firsov M. (A), Busygin M. (A2)
15:35, 3 - 2, Starovoitov A. (G),
18:01, 3 - 3, Filonov D. (G), Shakirov R. (A), Zhomov A. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
11:09, 4 - 3, Abdullin L. (G), Busygin M. (A), Aplin T. (A2)

Preview

Ermak is Qualified for NMHL (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Ermak is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Samara's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Ermak is a strong favorite.

We predict that Ermak will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ermak won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 3:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ermak won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ermak Angarsk
RHL
07.03.26	Ermak Angarsk - Samara	3:2 penalties ✺
04.03.26	Ermak Angarsk - Kristall Saratov	4:3 ✺
03.03.26	Ermak Angarsk - Kristall Saratov	6:2 ✺
24.02.26	MHK Ryazan - Ermak Angarsk	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Gvardiya Krasnodar - Ermak Angarsk	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWLW
- HK Samara
RHL
07.03.26	Ermak Angarsk - Samara	3:2 penalties ✺
04.03.26	MHK Ryazan - Samara	1:0 ✺
03.03.26	MHK Ryazan - Samara	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Samara - Lipetsk	5:3 ✺
21.02.26	Samara - Lipetsk	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

RHL
07.03.26	Ermak Angarsk - Samara	3:2 penalties
28.10.25	Samara - Ermak Angarsk	2:1
27.10.25	Samara - Ermak Angarsk	3:5

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