Match Info

WORLD: World Championship

Date: 21 May 2024, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Ostravar Arena (Ostrava) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Hronsky T. (Svk)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	13:20	Ring
Czech Republic	12:20	CT sport
Denmark	12:20	Viaplay
Finland	13:20	Viaplay, V Sport
Germany	12:20	Magenta Sport
Norway	12:20	Viaplay, V Sport
Sweden	12:20	TV6, Viaplay


	France		Germany

	1	X	2
	7.25	5.75	1.33	Watch
	7.25	5.75	1.34
	8	6.6	1.31
	5.97	5.39	1.28
	5.97	5.39	1.28
	6.5	5.8	1.3
	7.35	6.06	1.34	Watch
	7.4	5.8	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.96 ↑ (5.22)	5.82 ↑ (5.08)	1.32 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

France
13.4%

Draw
16%

Germany
70.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

18%

18.5%

63.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.5%

19%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

France has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Germany has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Germany's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for France than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for France, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Germany than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Germany, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	3.7%	96.3%

France - Germany Predictions

Users Predictions: Germany will win (26 of 27 users predict this - 96.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.18% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:4

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Papillon Q. (G) Bordeaux	30. Grubauer P. (G) Seattle Kraken
5. Guebey E. Davos	6. Wissmann K. Eisbaren Berlin
18. Auvitu Y. (A) Vitkovice	41. Muller J. Eisbaren Berlin
94. Bozon T. Lausanne	33. Peterka J. Buffalo Sabres
41. Bellemare P-E. (A) Seattle Kraken	19. Stachowiak W. ERC Ingolstadt
77. Treille S. (C) Grenoble	73. Reichel L. Chicago Blackhawks
Line 2
27. Cantagallo E. Rouen	27. Szuber M. Arizona Coyotes
62. Chakiachvili F. Rouen	91. Muller Mor. (C) Kolner Haie
3. Bertrand C. ERC Ingolstadt	72. Kahun D. (A) Bern
29. Boudon L. Iowa Wild	78. Sturm N. San Jose Sharks
81. Rech A. Rouen	95. Tiffels F. Eisbaren Berlin
Line 3
6. Llorca V. Angers	38. Wagner F. ERC Ingolstadt
7. Crinon P. Grenoble	49. Kaelble L. Adler Mannheim
12. Claireaux V. Vitkovice	83. Pfoederl L. Eisbaren Berlin
24. Addamo J. Wheeling Nailers	65. Michaelis M. Adler Mannheim
72. Perret J. Mountfield HK	42. Ehliz Y. (A) Munchen
Line 4
74. Thiry T. Ajoie	5. Fohrler T. Adler Mannheim
91. Bruche B. Bordeaux	79. Ugbekile C. Iserlohn Roosters
90. Dair A. Grenoble	40. Ehl A. Dusseldorf
11. Colomban R. Briancon	7. Kastner M. Munchen
95. Bozon K. Ajoie	62. Tuomie P.
Substitutes
33. Junca J. (G) Chicago Wolves	35. Niederberger M. (G) Munchen
Coaches
. Bozon P.	. Kreis H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
00:31, Addamo J. (2 min),
16:49, 1 - 0, Claireaux V. (G), Addamo J. (A), Perret J. (A2)
16:56, Guebey E. (2 min),
19:04, 1 - 1, Michaelis M. (G), Kahun D. (A), Ehliz Y. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 3)
01:09, 2 - 1, Rech A. (G), Boudon L. (A), Chakiachvili F. (A2)
03:09, Sturm N. (2 min),
05:56, 2 - 2, Kaelble L. (G), Stachowiak W. (A), Peterka J. (A2)
06:18, 3 - 2, Treille S. (G), Bozon T. (A), Guebey E. (A2)
11:01, 3 - 3, Stachowiak W. (G), Reichel L. (A),
11:23, 3 - 4, Kastner M. (G), Michaelis M. (A), Szuber M. (A2)
18:12, Cantagallo E. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 2)
01:19, 3 - 5, Stachowiak W. (G),
04:37, Auvitu Y. (2 min),
04:50, 3 - 6, Reichel L. (G), Sturm N. (A), Pfoederl L. (A2)
04:50, Papillon Q. ↓, Junca J. ↑,
07:30, Perret J. (2 min),
07:30, Stachowiak W. (2 min),
07:30, Crinon P. (2 min),
14:23, Tiffels F. (5 min),
14:23, Perret J. (2 min),
19:42, Addamo J. (2 min),

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ World Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Germany is Qualified for World Championship (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches France won 1.

France is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Germany is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Germany could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Germany is absolute favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches France won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 26-53.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- France hockey
IIHF World Championship
20.05.24	Sweden - France	3:1 ✺
18.05.24	France - Slovakia	2:4 ✺
16.05.24	USA - France	5:0 ✺
14.05.24	Poland - France	2:4 ✺
12.05.24	Latvia - France	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWL
- Germany hockey
IIHF World Championship
18.05.24	Germany - Poland	4:2 ✺
17.05.24	Germany - Kazakhstan	8:2 ✺
15.05.24	Germany - Latvia	8:1 ✺
13.05.24	Germany - Sweden	1:6 ✺
11.05.24	USA - Germany	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Ice Hockey
06.05.24	Germany - France	4:3 OT
04.05.24	Germany - France	3:5
IIHF World Championship
23.05.23	Germany - France	5:0
16.05.22	France - Germany	2:3
14.05.19	Germany - France	4:1
Friendly International Ice Hockey
21.04.18	Germany - France	2:1 OT
19.04.18	Germany - France	7:1

France - Germany