Match Info

WCH IA

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Winter Stadium (Sosnowiec)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Extra 3
Ukraine	Suspilne Sport


	Japan		Poland

	1	X	2
	5	5	1.5	Watch
	4.6	4.4	1.58	Watch
	5.69	5	1.45
	5.87	5.06	1.43	Watch
	5.51	4.8	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.33 ↑ (4.89)	4.85 ↑ (4.57)	1.48 ↓ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan
17.5%

Draw
19.3%

Poland
63.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19%

20.3%

60.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

22.4%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Poland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Japan than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Poland than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Poland, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Japan - Poland Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Poland will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 6.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:4

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Narisawa Y. (G) Red Eagles Hokkaido	33. Fucik T. (G) Tychy
2. Hayata S. Nikko Ice Bucks	67. Pociecha B. (A) Tychy
5. Halliday J. Red Eagles Hokkaido	3. Ciura B. (A) Zaglebie Sosnowiec
10. Keller J. Kamloops Blazers	98. Krezolek P. Sokolov
18. Suzuki F.	21. Walega K. Zilina
26. Hirano Y. (A) Dusseldorf	16. Zygmunt P. Litvinov
Line 2
6. Murakami R.	77. Narog M. Zaglebie Sosnowiec
4. Yoneyama K. Tohoku Free Blades	17. Gorny K. (C) Bytom
17. Hanzawa C. HL Anyang	95. Wronka P. GKS Katowice
22. Nakajima T. (C) Red Eagles Hokkaido	14. Pas D. Tychy
24. Sato Y. Dynamo Altay (VHL)	88. Lyszczarczyk A. Tychy
Line 3
20. Otsu Y. HL Anyang	51. Wanacki J. Zaglebie Sosnowiec
23. Takebe T. Red Eagles Hokkaido	69. Bryk M. Tychy
13. Miura Y. Iowa Heartlanders	9. Mroczkowski C. Bytom
15. Irikura T. (A) Red Eagles Hokkaido	5. Komorski F. Tychy
9. Takagi K. Red Eagles Hokkaido	8. Chmielewski A. Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Line 4
25. Isogai S. Red Eagles Hokkaido	79. Bilas K. Zaglebie Sosnowiec
14. Osawa Y. Yokohama Grits	34. Macias K. Vitkovice
12. Suzuki M. Nikko Ice Bucks	89. Syty N. Torun
	20. Kielbicki S. Jastrzebie
Substitutes
16. Kobayashi T. Red Eagles Hokkaido	35. Kieler M. (G) GKS Katowice
29. Otsuka I. (G) Nikko Ice Bucks	11. Slusarczyk J. Jastrzebie

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
05:56, 0 - 1, Pas D. (G), Pociecha B. (A), Wronka P. (A2)
15:32, 1 - 1, Hanzawa C. (G), Nakajima T. (A), Halliday J. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
11:22, 1 - 2, Komorski F. (G), Krezolek P. (A), Chmielewski A. (A2)
17:46, 2 - 2, Hanzawa C. (G), Sato Y. (A), Yoneyama K. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
12:00, 2 - 3, Wronka P. (G), Pas D. (A), Lyszczarczyk A. (A2)
18:26, 2 - 4, Krezolek P. (G), Wanacki J. (A), Ciura B. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Japan won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Poland is a strong favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Japan won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:37. (average 1.9:3.7).

Standings

2025

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Japan	5	2	0	1	2	14:16	7
5	Poland	5	2	0	0	3	8:13	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan hockey
IIHF World Championship IA
05.05.26	Lithuania - Japan	2:3 OT ✺
03.05.26	Kazakhstan - Japan	6:0 ✺
02.05.26	Japan - France	3:4 ✺
Friendly International Ice Hockey
25.04.26	Hungary - Japan	2:4 ✺
24.04.26	Hungary - Japan	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLWW
- Poland hockey
IIHF World Championship IA
05.05.26	Kazakhstan - Poland	3:2 ✺
03.05.26	France - Poland	3:2 penalties ✺
02.05.26	Poland - Ukraine	3:2 ✺
Friendly International Ice Hockey
29.04.26	Poland - France	3:2 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Poland - Slovenia	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

IIHF World Championship IA
28.04.25	Poland - Japan	2:1
Friendly International Ice Hockey
12.02.23	Japan - Poland	4:3 OT
IIHF World Championship IB
01.05.22	Poland - Japan	2:0
Ice Hockey International Tournament Poland
08.11.19	Poland - Japan	3:2
IIHF World Championship IB
04.05.19	Poland - Japan	7:4
Friendly International Ice Hockey
17.04.18	Poland - Japan	5:2
Ice Hockey International Tournament Hungary
11.11.17	Poland - Japan	3:2

Japan - Poland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide