Match Info

SM-sarja U20 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	Kärpät U20		Ilves U20

	1	X	2
	3.2	4.6	1.65
	3.91	4.32	1.62
	4.04	4.51	1.62	Watch
	4.14	4.55	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↓ (4.12)	4.5 ↓ (4.64)	1.62 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kärpät U20
23.7%

Draw
20.2%

Ilves U20
56.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

19.8%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

21.6%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Ilves U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät U20 than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves U20 than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (3 - 1)
00:42, 0 - 1, Heikkinen I. (G), Teuho-Markkola T. (A), Kuukasjarvi R. (A2)
01:42, 1 - 1, Kylmala O. (G), Jurvelin L. (A), Karassaari J. (A2)
12:28, 2 - 1, Jung S. (G), Salovaara E. (A), Viuhkola N. (A2)
15:00, 3 - 1, Ruotsalainen V. (G),
2nd Period (0 - 3)
00:55, 3 - 2, Pelkonen L. (G), Soini S. (A), Laurell E. (A2)
12:29, 3 - 3, Heikkinen I. (G), Soini S. (A), Liljeberg M. (A2)
17:11, 3 - 4, Laitinen J. (G), Kuitunen O. (A), Heikkinen I. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
08:16, 3 - 5, Laurell E. (G), Pelkonen L. (A), Karjalainen P. (A2)
18:03, 3 - 6, Heikkinen I. (G),

Preview

Ilves Tampere leads series 2-1. Fourth leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät U20 won 1.

In recent matches, Kärpät U20 has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ilves U20 is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kärpät U20 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ilves U20 has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ilves U20 is a strong favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Kärpät U20 won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 62:60. (average 3.3:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät U20 won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:28. (average 3:3.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Karpat U20	12	5	3	0	4	40:35	21
10	Ilves U20	10	4	1	1	4	36:43	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpät U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
21.03.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	2:3 penalties ✺
19.03.26	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	2:7 ✺
17.03.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	5:4 ✺
15.03.26	Mikkelin Jukurit U20 - Kärpät U20	0:5 ✺
14.03.26	Kärpät U20 - Mikkelin Jukurit U20	1:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WLLWL
- Ilves U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
21.03.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	2:3 penalties ✺
19.03.26	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	2:7 ✺
17.03.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	5:4 ✺
07.03.26	Ilves U20 - Mikkelin Jukurit U20	3:1 ✺
06.03.26	Ilves U20 - JYP U20	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
21.03.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	2:3 penalties
19.03.26	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	2:7
17.03.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	5:4
23.01.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	4:3 OT
01.11.25	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	0:3
31.10.25	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	2:9
03.10.25	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	5:2

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