Match Info

MHL

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday


	Kapitan Stupino		Dinamo-Karelia

	1	X	2
	1.43	5.5	5.57
	1.41	5.1	5.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.44)	5.3 ↑ (5.08)	5.51 ↑ (5.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kapitan Stupino
65.5%

Draw
17.6%

Dinamo-Karelia
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

18.3%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

19.9%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kapitan Stupino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Dinamo-Karelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kapitan Stupino than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kapitan Stupino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dinamo-Karelia than the current prediction. (+2%)

Kapitan Stupino - Dinamo Karelia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Nikonov V. (G)	76. Bondarenko K. (G)
75. Tsevelev V.	24. Petrov A.
95. Dautov M.	53. Lvov D.
58. Lapshov D.	17. Marininov Y.
82. Drozdov V.	11. Afanasyev I.
7. Babenko M.	51. Mamonov F.
Line 2
49. Pogorelov S.	45. Konovalov A.
94. Kozlov I.	7. Gulko A.
62. Soshnikov A.	19. Bazanov I.
59. Vishnyakov S.	34. Novikov Y.
79. Bashlykov Y.	39. Korzik S.
Line 3
48. Maklakov A.	59. Grishkov A.
81. Tarasov A.	55. Kagramanov R.
36. Kutishchev K.	15. Kraglik K.
27. Lobanov I.	25. Arsentyev I.
69. Lebedev P.	26. Medvedev Y.
Line 4
83. Menshenin Y.	41. Kolpakov P.
76. Tatulov G.	21. Pogosbekyan A.
20. Vergeichik V.	42. Sementsov S.
64. Zotov I.	16. Bobryshev I.
	36. Eliseev I.
Substitutes
40. Gulkovsky K. (G)	1. Filippov A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (3 - 0)
09:00, 1 - 0, Babenko M. (G), Tsevelev V. (A), Drozdov V. (A2)
11:37, 2 - 0, Vergeichik V. (G), Lapshov D. (A), Lobanov I. (A2)
12:59, 3 - 0, Drozdov V. (G), Babenko M. (A), Maklakov A. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
04:08, 3 - 1, Bazanov I. (G), Novikov Y. (A), Vasilevsky D. (A2)
3rd Period (3 - 1)
00:17, 4 - 1, Babenko M. (G), Tsevelev V. (A), Drozdov V. (A2)
04:15, 4 - 2, Novikov Y. (G), Grishkov A. (A), Bazanov I. (A2)
13:12, 5 - 2, Babenko M. (G), Vishnyakov S. (A),
18:36, 6 - 2, Vishnyakov S. (G), Babenko M. (A), Tatulov G. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kapitan Stupino won 4.

In recent matches, Kapitan Stupino has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dinamo-Karelia has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Dinamo-Karelia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Kapitan Stupino has had a series of home games.

In this match, Kapitan Stupino is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Kapitan Stupino will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Kapitan Stupino won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 55:25. (average 3.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kapitan Stupino won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 31:13. (average 4.4:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Kapitan Stupino - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 64.37%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Dinamo-Karelia - the odds 5.34 are the expected chance of winning is 17.36%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kapitan Stupino
MHL
25.02.26	Kapitan Stupino - Dinamo-Karelia	4:3 ✺
21.02.26	Kapitan Stupino - AKM-Junior	4:1 ✺
17.02.26	Dinamo-Shinnik - Kapitan Stupino	4:0 ✺
14.02.26	Kapitan Stupino - SKA-Akademiya	2:3 ✺
13.02.26	Kapitan Stupino - SKA-Akademiya	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLLW
- Dinamo-Karelia Kondopoga
MHL
25.02.26	Kapitan Stupino - Dinamo-Karelia	4:3 ✺
22.02.26	Dinamo-Karelia - MHC Dynamo Moscow	1:4 ✺
19.02.26	AKM-Junior - Dinamo-Karelia	7:2 ✺
17.02.26	AKM-Junior - Dinamo-Karelia	3:4 ✺
13.02.26	Dinamo-Karelia - Dinamo-Shinnik	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

MHL
25.02.26	Kapitan Stupino - Dinamo-Karelia	4:3
03.02.26	Dinamo-Karelia - Kapitan Stupino	3:2
02.02.26	Dinamo-Karelia - Kapitan Stupino	2:3
11.12.24	Kapitan Stupino - Dinamo-Karelia	3:1
27.11.24	Kapitan Stupino - Dinamo-Karelia	4:1
22.09.24	Dinamo-Karelia - Kapitan Stupino	2:4
21.09.24	Dinamo-Karelia - Kapitan Stupino	1:2

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