Match Info

FINLAND: Mestis - Relegation - Semi-finals

Date: 19 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Keuruun jäähalli (Keuruu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	KeuPa		Hokki

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.5	4.2
	1.59	4.6	4.3
	1.54	4.32	4.27
	1.62	4.65	4.19	Watch
	1.55	4.33	4
	1.56	4.6	4.6	Watch
	1.59	4.6	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.57)	4.51 ↓ (4.85)	4.27 ↓ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KeuPa
58.3%

Draw
20.3%

Hokki
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

19.1%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

18.9%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KeuPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Hokki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KeuPa than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hokki than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

KeuPa - Hokki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Nauseda F. (G)	33. Nieminen E. (G)
4. Kuusela K.	8. Mykkanen J.
63. Niku T.	11. Koskenkorva S. (A)
80. Grinius M.	83. Vahakangas K.
89. Linjala M.	26. Ojala J.
67. Curri R.	22. Juhola J.
Line 2
6. Lahtinen M. (C)	91. Tuomainen N.
26. Tuupanen T. (A)	4. Heiskanen T.
23. Korjus J.	16. Virtanen J.
20. Jaatinen O. (A)	12. Ohtonen J. (A)
16. Helander J.	63. Jokinen J. (C)
Line 3
85. Karhapaa I.	6. Bilgili S.
3. Mannikko T.	38. Ilvessuo J.
51. Kangasniemi E.	87. Karasa A.
59. Tarvainen K.	25. Fagerstrom J.
25. Keteli K.	19. Homjakovs A.
Line 4
8. Aunala T.
18. Utriainen O.
29. Parviainen J.
74. Rantanen J.
Substitutes
34. Helander J. (G)	27. Aaltonen J.
	71. Nikkila N. (G)
	15. Pellikka A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
14:48, 1 - 0, Keteli K. (G), Tarvainen K. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
18:17, 1 - 1, Ohtonen J. (G), Heiskanen T. (A), Tuomainen N. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 0)
Overtime (1 - 0)
12:03, 2 - 1, Mannikko T. (G),

Preview

5th leg. KeuPa leads series 3-1.

Last 5 head-to-head matches KeuPa won 3.

Recent matches KeuPa is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hokki is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match KeuPa is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches KeuPa won 12 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 75:39 (average 3.8:2).

Including matches at home between the teams KeuPa won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 44:18 (average 4.4:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KeuPa HT
Finnish Mestis
15.03.25	Hokki - KeuPa	0:4 ✺
14.03.25	KeuPa - Hokki	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Hokki - KeuPa	2:0 ✺
07.03.25	KeuPa - Hokki	3:3 ✺
01.03.25	KeuPa - Jokerit	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLTL
- Hokki
Finnish Mestis
15.03.25	Hokki - KeuPa	0:4 ✺
14.03.25	KeuPa - Hokki	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Hokki - KeuPa	2:0 ✺
07.03.25	KeuPa - Hokki	3:3 ✺
01.03.25	Hokki - RoKi	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
15.03.25	Hokki - KeuPa	0:4
14.03.25	KeuPa - Hokki	2:1
08.03.25	Hokki - KeuPa	2:0
07.03.25	KeuPa - Hokki	3:3
21.02.25	KeuPa - Hokki	4:0
07.02.25	Hokki - KeuPa	3:2
08.12.24	Hokki - KeuPa	3:2

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