Match Info

Mestis

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Keuruun jäähalli (Keuruu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	KeuPa		Jokerit

	1	X	2
	6.35	5.65	1.35	Watch
	6.64	5.39	1.3
	6.78	5.34	1.36	Watch
	6	4.8	1.3
	6.52	5.45	1.33
	7.5	5.5	1.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.63 ↓ (7.2)	5.36 ↓ (5.63)	1.32 (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KeuPa
13.7%

Draw
17%

Jokerit
69.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.9%

16.5%

70.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.5%

12.2%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KeuPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Jokerit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KeuPa than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jokerit than the current prediction. (-17.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jokerit, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

KeuPa - Jokerit Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:4

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Pasanen J. (G)	32. Anttila E. (G)
26. Tuupanen T. (C)	73. Tuhkanen O.
42. Wolin A. (A)	52. Tuomola R.
93. Jarvenpaa M.	40. Suni O.
28. Lehtonen W.	22. Forslund A. (A)
9. Hokkanen R.	71. Heinonen S.
Line 2
45. Heikkila E.	12. Tumanovs M.
2. Kesajarvi A.	47. Forsblom S. (C)
18. Utriainen O.	25. Leskinen V.
20. Jaatinen O. (A)	92. Mustonen A. (A)
89. Linjala M.	26. Kangasniemi O.
Line 3
10. Heikkila M.	2. Rantakari O.
7. Dobos M. B.	7. Korkka O.
17. Tohila R.	21. Karvinen O.
80. Harjula J.	19. Nalli M.
	80. Vainikainen V.
Line 4
12. Krook A.	77. Virtanen J.
27. Tarvainen K.	20. Lahnaviik R.
24. Manni E.	16. Henritius T.
	14. Liuksiala J.
Substitutes
35. Lavikainen L. (G)	35. Ainasto J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
04:00, 1 - 0, Lehtonen W. (G), Kesajarvi A. (A),
07:35, 1 - 1, Liuksiala J. (G), Lahnaviik R. (A), Tumanovs M. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
14:51, 1 - 2, Forslund A. (G), Suni O. (A), Heinonen S. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 0)

Preview

KeuPa is Mestis (Relegation)

Jokerit is Qualified for Mestis (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KeuPa won 0.

KeuPa is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Jokerit is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Jokerit may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Jokerit has had a series of home games.

In this match, Jokerit is the obvious favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, KeuPa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 16:64. (average 1.1:4.6).

Including home matches between the teams, KeuPa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:30. (average 0.9:4.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
8	KeuPa	9	2	0	2	5	22:37	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KeuPa HT
Finnish Mestis
17.02.26	Imatran Ketterä - KeuPa	1:2 penalties ✺
14.02.26	KeuPa - Imatran Ketterä	3:1 ✺
12.02.26	KeuPa - Hermes Kokkola	5:2 ✺
10.02.26	IPK - KeuPa	2:4 ✺
07.02.26	KeuPa - TuTo	4:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32 WWWWW
- Jokerit hockey
Finnish Mestis
17.02.26	Jokerit - Kiekko-Vantaa	4:1 ✺
14.02.26	Jokerit - RoKi	5:1 ✺
07.02.26	Jokerit - Imatran Ketterä	5:1 ✺
06.02.26	Nokian Pyry - Jokerit	3:2 ✺
04.02.26	Jokerit - KeuPa	8:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
04.02.26	Jokerit - KeuPa	8:2
19.12.25	KeuPa - Jokerit	0:4
17.10.25	KeuPa - Jokerit	2:3
25.09.25	Jokerit - KeuPa	5:1
01.03.25	KeuPa - Jokerit	0:3
15.02.25	Jokerit - KeuPa	2:4
28.01.25	Jokerit - KeuPa	6:1

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