Match Info

National League - Round 30

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Cornèr Arena (Lugano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	MySports, MySports


	Lugano		EHC Kloten

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.5	4.2	Watch
	1.72	4.35	3.95
	1.62	4.34	3.98
	1.67	4.51	4.12	Watch
	1.62	4.2	3.7
	1.76	4.4	3.99	Watch
	1.66	4	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2)	4.33 ↑ (4.2)	3.97 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
55.3%

Draw
21.4%

EHC Kloten
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

22.4%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

21.1%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

EHC Kloten has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and EHC Kloten might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EHC Kloten than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that EHC Kloten could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lugano - EHC Kloten Predictions

Users Predictions: Lugano will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lugano will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
34. Schlegel N. (G)	35. Waeber L. (G)
22. Alatalo S.	9. Delemont N.
25. Muller M.	55. Lindroth M.
94. Simion D.	88. Meyer D.
97. Thurkauf C. (C)	10. Gignac B.
16. Emanuelsson E.	90. Puhakka P.
Line 2
26. Aebischer D.	16. Wolf B.
63. Dahlstrom C.	31. Klok L.
17. Fazzini L.	28. Simic A.
21. Sanford Z.	82. Leino R.
14. Canonica L.	86. Morley T.
Line 3
58. Carrick C.	41. Profico L.
52. Peltonen J.	95. Steiner N.
7. Tanner R.	11. Derungs K.
92. Sgarbossa M.	93. Diem N.
10. Sekac J.	62. Schreiber H.
Line 4
9. Zanetti B.	19. Kellenberger S. (C)
11. Zanetti M.	72. Weibel K.
23. Morini G.	91. Schappi R.
12. Peltonen A.	92. Meier R.
Substitutes
37. Van Pottelberghe J. (G)	29. Fadani D. (G)
	27. Smirnovs D.
Coaches
. Mitell T.	. Marjamaki L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
02:45, 1 - 0, Morini G. (G), Peltonen A. (A),
10:07, 2 - 0, Sanford Z. (G), Fazzini L. (A),
18:34, Puhakka P. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
06:09, Fazzini L. (2 min),
16:52, Sgarbossa M. (2 min),
18:11, 3 - 0, Peltonen J. (G), Peltonen A. (A),
19:30, 3 - 1, Meyer D. (G),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
16:21, Meier R. (2 min),
20', (2 min),
20', 4 - 1, Alatalo S. (G),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13 in the zone National League (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 4.

Lugano has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kloten's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Kloten may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lugano is considered a favorite.

We predict that Lugano will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 67:64. (average 3.4:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 42:28. (average 4.2:2.8).

Last Results with these Odds

EHC Kloten - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 30.41%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Lugano
Swiss National League Hockey
30.11.25	Rapperswil-Jona Lakers - Lugano	3:2 penalties ✺
28.11.25	Lugano - Ambrì-Piotta	5:1 ✺
21.11.25	EV Zug - Lugano	2:3 ✺
20.11.25	Lugano - Fribourg-Gottéron	0:4 ✺
15.11.25	Lugano - Biel	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWLW
- EHC Kloten
Swiss National League Hockey
28.11.25	EHC Kloten - Ajoie	2:3 ✺
25.11.25	Biel - EHC Kloten	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	SCL Tigers - EHC Kloten	6:1 ✺
21.11.25	EHC Kloten - Bern	4:2 ✺
15.11.25	Rapperswil-Jona Lakers - EHC Kloten	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss National League Hockey
14.11.25	EHC Kloten - Lugano	1:2
05.10.25	Lugano - EHC Kloten	5:4 penalties
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
15.08.25	Lugano - EHC Kloten	5:1
Swiss National League Hockey
25.01.25	Lugano - EHC Kloten	4:1
18.12.24	EHC Kloten - Lugano	6:3
02.11.24	EHC Kloten - Lugano	5:2
28.09.24	Lugano - EHC Kloten	4:2

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