Match Info

NHL - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Grand Casino Arena (Saint Paul, MN)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Minnesota Wild		Colorado Avalanche

	1	X	2
	2.95	4.2	2.05	Watch
	2.95	4.05	2.12
	2.92	4.3	2.12
	2.87	4.24	2.08	Watch
	2.7	4	2.05
	2.97	4.37	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.8)	4.19 ↑ (4.05)	2.1 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Minnesota Wild
32.6%

Draw
22.5%

Colorado Avalanche
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

23.5%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

24.7%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Minnesota Wild has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Colorado Avalanche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Minnesota Wild than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colorado Avalanche than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	30.8%	46.2%

Minnesota Wild - Colorado Avalanche Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Minnesota will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Colorado will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Colorado: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Colorado (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 6.5, OT - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Wallstedt J. (G)	39. Blackwood M. (G)
7. Faber B.	8. Makar C. (A)
43. Hughes Q.	7. Toews D.
36. Zuccarello M.	88. Necas M.
38. Hartman R.	29. MacKinnon N. (A)
97. Kaprizov K. (A)	92. Landeskog G. (C)
Line 2
46. Spurgeon J. (C)	70. Malinski S.
48. Hunt D.	27. Kulak B.
12. Boldy M.	13. Nichushkin V.
22. Yurov D.	11. Nelson B.
90. Johansson M.	62. Lehkonen A.
Line 3
24. Bogosian Z.	42. Manson J.
5. Middleton J.	84. Burns B.
91. Tarasenko V.	10. Roy N.
47. McCarron M.	91. Kadri N.
13. Trenin Y.	20. Colton R.
Line 4
71. Foligno N.	25. O'Connor L.
78. Sturm N.	18. Drury J.
17. Foligno M. (A)	17. Kelly P.
Substitutes
32. Gustavsson F. (G)	41. Wedgewood S. (G)
Coaches
. Hynes J.	. Bednar J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
00:48, Yurov D. (2 min),
00:48, Colton R. (2 min),
07:07, Manson J. (2 min),
09:46, 1 - 0, Yurov D. (G), Faber B. (A), Tarasenko V. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
02:42, Bogosian Z. (2 min),
06:01, Trenin Y. (2 min),
06:08, 1 - 1, Kadri N. (G), Necas M. (A),
10:48, (2 min),
15:39, Kelly P. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 4)
06:56, 1 - 2, Colton R. (G), Roy N. (A),
09:15, 2 - 2, Sturm N. (G), Hughes Q. (A),
11:32, 2 - 3, Kelly P. (G), Drury J. (A),
19:27, 2 - 4, MacKinnon N. (G), Necas M. (A),
19:52, 2 - 5, Nelson B. (G),
20:00, Foligno M. (2 min),

Preview

Colorado Avalanche leads series 2-1. Fourth leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 2.

In recent matches, Minnesota has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Colorado is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Minnesota may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Minnesota: Brodin J. (Lower-Body Injury) Eriksson Ek J. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Colorado: Kiviranta J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Colorado: Manson J. (Upper-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 56:71. (average 2.8:3.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Minnesota won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:34. (average 2.5:3.4).

Outrights of NHL for now

Colorado Avalanche: 9.6% Minnesota Wild: 5.61%

Last Results with these Odds

Minnesota Wild - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 34.06%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Colorado Avalanche - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.39%, but this team recently wins 37% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Minnesota Wild
NHL
09.05.26	Minnesota Wild - Colorado Avalanche	5:1 ✺
05.05.26	Colorado Avalanche - Minnesota Wild	5:2 ✺
03.05.26	Colorado Avalanche - Minnesota Wild	9:6 ✺
30.04.26	Minnesota Wild - Dallas Stars	5:2 ✺
28.04.26	Dallas Stars - Minnesota Wild	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLLWW
- Colorado Avalanche
NHL
09.05.26	Minnesota Wild - Colorado Avalanche	5:1 ✺
05.05.26	Colorado Avalanche - Minnesota Wild	5:2 ✺
03.05.26	Colorado Avalanche - Minnesota Wild	9:6 ✺
26.04.26	Los Angeles Kings - Colorado Avalanche	1:5 ✺
23.04.26	Los Angeles Kings - Colorado Avalanche	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
09.05.26	Minnesota Wild - Colorado Avalanche	5:1
05.05.26	Colorado Avalanche - Minnesota Wild	5:2
03.05.26	Colorado Avalanche - Minnesota Wild	9:6
08.03.26	Colorado Avalanche - Minnesota Wild	3:2 penalties
26.02.26	Colorado Avalanche - Minnesota Wild	2:5
21.12.25	Minnesota Wild - Colorado Avalanche	1:5
28.11.25	Minnesota Wild - Colorado Avalanche	3:2 penalties

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