Match Info

Olympic Games - Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Santa Giulia Ice Hockey Arena (Milan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	SporTV 2
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	CT sport, Eurosport 1, HBO Max, Oneplay
Denmark	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Finland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
France	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Germany	Eurosport 1
Hungary	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Italy	Eurosport 1
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Poland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Portugal	Eurosport 1
Romania	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Sweden	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Switzerland	SRF 2, SRF 2
Turkey	Eurosport 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 5
Usa	NBC Sports App, Peacock


	Slovakia		Finland

	1	X	2
	5.25	5.25	1.5
	6.23	5.14	1.46
	5.29	5.21	1.49	Watch
	4.75	4.4	1.5
	5.7	5.3	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.44 ↑ (4.57)	5.06 ↑ (4.75)	1.48 ↓ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Slovakia
17.4%

Draw
18.7%

Finland
63.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

19.9%

59.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

20.7%

57.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Slovakia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Finland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Slovakia than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Finland than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Finland, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	4.5%	86.4%

Slovakia - Finland Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Finland (1.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Finland (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Finland (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1, OT - Finland (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Finland (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5, OT - Finland (1.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB, 3rd Period - Finland (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 2nd Period - Finland (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 1st Period - Finland (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Finland will win (19 of 22 users predict this - 86.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.02% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Finland will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Finland (votes: 19 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:4

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Hlavaj S. (G) Minnesota Wild	74. Saros J. (G) Nashville Predators
17. Nemec S. New Jersey Devils	41. Heiskanen M. (A) Dallas Stars
42. Fehervary M. (A) Washington Capitals	23. Lindell E. Dallas Stars
90. Tatar T. (C) Zug	91. Kapanen O. Montreal Canadiens
21. Ruzicka A. Spartak Moscow	20. Aho S. (A) Carolina Hurricanes
20. Slafkovsky J. Montreal Canadiens	62. Lehkonen A. Colorado Avalanche
Line 2
81. Cernak E. (A) Tampa Bay Lightning	55. Ristolainen R. Philadelphia Flyers
28. Gernat M. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl	77. Mikkola N. Florida Panthers
84. Regenda P. San Jose Sharks	86. Teravainen T. Chicago Blackhawks
6. Cingel L. Kometa Brno	24. Hintz R. Dallas Stars
11. Kelemen M. Pardubice	64. Granlund Mik. (C) Anaheim Ducks
Line 3
14. Ceresnak P. Pardubice	10. Jokiharju H. Boston Bruins
52. Marincin M. Trinec	3. Maatta O. Utah Mammoth
79. Hudacek L. Trinec	84. Kakko K. Seattle Kraken
15. Dvorsky D. St. Louis Blues	15. Lundell A. Florida Panthers
8. Okuliar O. Skelleftea	27. Luostarinen E. Florida Panthers
Line 4
64. Koch P. Trinec	33. Matinpalo N. Ottawa Senators
34. Cehlarik P. Leksand	40. Armia J. Los Angeles Kings
91. Sukel M. Litvinov	56. Haula E. Nashville Predators
23. Liska A. Severstal Cherepovets	28. Tolvanen E. Seattle Kraken
Substitutes
33. Skorvanek S. (G) Mountfield HK	94. Kiviranta J. Colorado Avalanche
49. Takac S. Slovan Bratislava	32. Lankinen K. (G) Vancouver Canucks
Coaches
. Orszagh V.	. Pennanen A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
07:27, 0 - 1, Aho S. (G), Lehkonen A. (A), Heiskanen M. (A2)
19:34, Okuliar O. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
03:08, Haula E. (2 min),
08:05, 0 - 2, Haula E. (G), Armia J. (A), Tolvanen E. (A2)
10:55, Lehkonen A. (2 min),
19:30, 1 - 2, Tatar T. (G), Fehervary M. (A),
3rd Period (0 - 4)
00:39, Regenda P. (2 min),
07:47, Ruzicka A. (2 min),
08:27, 1 - 3, Hintz R. (G), Heiskanen M. (A), Tolvanen E. (A2)
09:09, 1 - 4, Kakko K. (G),
15:32, 1 - 5, Armia J. (G), Hintz R. (A),
18:42, 1 - 6, Haula E. (G), Armia J. (A), Ristolainen R. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Slovakia won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Finland is the team to beat.

There will not play in Slovakia: Hrivik M. (Upper-Body Injury)

There will not play in Finland: Luukkonen U. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Slovakia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 22:52. (average 1.3:3.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Slovakia hockey
Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey
20.02.26	USA - Slovakia	6:2 ✺
18.02.26	Slovakia - Germany	6:2 ✺
14.02.26	Sweden - Slovakia	5:3 ✺
13.02.26	Italy - Slovakia	2:3 ✺
11.02.26	Slovakia - Finland	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 LWLWW
- Finland hockey
Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey
20.02.26	Canada - Finland	3:2 ✺
18.02.26	Finland - Switzerland	3:2 OT ✺
14.02.26	Finland - Italy	11:0 ✺
13.02.26	Finland - Sweden	4:1 ✺
11.02.26	Slovakia - Finland	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey
11.02.26	Slovakia - Finland	4:1
IIHF World Championship
20.05.25	Slovakia - Finland	1:2
26.05.22	Finland - Slovakia	4:2
Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey
17.02.22	Finland - Slovakia	2:0
10.02.22	Finland - Slovakia	6:2
IIHF World Championship
11.05.19	Slovakia - Finland	2:4
Friendly International Ice Hockey
21.04.17	Slovakia - Finland	3:2

Slovakia - Finland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide