Match Info

NHL - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Sweden	Viaplay
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World	NHL.tv


	Tampa Bay Lightning		Montreal Canadiens

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	3.25	Watch
	2.08	3.95	3.2
	2.07	4.3	3.1
	2.07	4.04	3.11	Watch
	1.95	3.8	3.1
	2.03	4.3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.99)	4.03 ↓ (4.06)	3.14 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Lightning
46.4%

Draw
23.5%

Montreal Canadiens
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

23.5%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

23.8%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Montreal Canadiens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montreal Canadiens than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Montreal will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Montreal Canadiens will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
88. Vasilevski A. (G)	75. Dobes J. (G)
43. Raddysh D.	45. Carrier A.
90. Moser J.J.	8. Matheson M. (A)
86. Kucherov N. (A)	20. Slafkovsky J.
71. Cirelli A.	14. Suzuki N. (C)
38. Hagel B.	13. Caufield C.
Line 2
81. Cernak E.	48. Hutson L.
27. McDonagh R. (A)	21. Guhle K.
10. Perry C.	76. Bolduc Z.
21. Point B.	77. Dach K.
59. Guentzel J. (A)	85. Texier A.
Line 3
78. Lilleberg E.	72. Xhekaj A.
51. D'Astous C.	47. Struble J.
20. Paul N.	17. Anderson J.
37. Gourde Y.	24. Danault P.
28. Girgensons Z.	93. Demidov I.
Line 4
22. Bjorkstrand O.	11. Gallagher B. (A)
17. James D.	71. Evans J.
93. Goncalves G.	15. Newhook A.
Substitutes
31. Johansson J. (G)	32. Fowler J. (G)
Coaches
. Cooper J.	. St. Louis M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
18:39, 0 - 1, Suzuki N. (G), Guhle K. (A), Anderson J. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
03:14, Matheson M. (2 min),
05:04, Point B. (2 min),
12:33, Guhle K. (2 min),
13:27, 1 - 1, James D. (G), D'Astous C. (A), Goncalves G. (A2)
15:22, (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
11:07, 1 - 2, Newhook A. (G), Hutson L. (A), Guhle K. (A2)
19:53, Matheson M. (2 min),

Preview

Series tied 3-3. Seventh leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tampa Bay might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Hedman V. (Personal Reasons) Holmberg P. (Upper-Body Injury)

There will not play in Montreal: Dobson N. (Upper-Body Injury) Laine P. (Abdominal strain)

We predict that Tampa Bay will win today's game, with odds of 2.08.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 67:56. (average 3.4:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 33:32. (average 3.3:3.2).

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.31% Montreal Canadiens: 3.88%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
01.05.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	0:1 OT ✺
29.04.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens	2:3 ✺
26.04.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:3 ✺
24.04.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 OT ✺
21.04.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWLW
- Montreal Canadiens
NHL
01.05.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	0:1 OT ✺
29.04.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens	2:3 ✺
26.04.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:3 ✺
24.04.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 OT ✺
21.04.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
01.05.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	0:1 OT
29.04.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens	2:3
26.04.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:3
24.04.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 OT
21.04.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens	3:2 OT
19.04.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens	3:4 OT
09.04.26	Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:1

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