Match Info

NHL

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday

Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv
Mexico	Disney+
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN USA, MSG Sportsnet, MSG, NESN Plus, NHL Network, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Tampa Bay Lightning		Philadelphia Flyers

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.5	4	Watch
	1.72	4.25	3.80
	1.8	4.3	3.7
	1.76	4.59	3.76
	1.75	4.51	3.87	Watch
	1.75	4.55	3.7
	1.8	4.52	3.96
	1.73	4.3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.92)	4.44 ↑ (4.33)	3.82 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Lightning
54%

Draw
21.3%

Philadelphia Flyers
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

22.1%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

23.1%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Philadelphia Flyers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tampa Bay Lightning that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Philadelphia Flyers than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers Predictions

New Consensus by Tipsters:

Games O/U 5.5 - over (1.80) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
88. Vasilevski A. (G)	80. Vladar D. (G)
74. Carlson J.	6. Sanheim T. (A)
90. Moser J.J.	8. York C.
86. Kucherov N. (A)	39. Michkov M.
21. Point B.	22. Dvorak C.
93. Goncalves G.	11. Konecny T. (A)
Line 2
81. Cernak E.	9. Drysdale J.
27. McDonagh R. (A)	44. Benoit S.
59. Guentzel J.	74. Tippett O.
71. Cirelli A.	46. Zegras T.
38. Hagel B.	91. Grundstrom C.
Line 3
51. D'Astous C.	5. Jiricek D.
77. Hedman V. (C)	24. Seeler N.
29. Holmberg P.	94. Martone P.
28. Girgensons Z.	27. Cates N.
95. Mikheyev I.	71. Foerster T.
Line 4
24. Crozier M.	52. Acciari N.
94. Geekie C.	14. Couturier S. (C)
25. Truchon-Viel J.	86. Barkey D.
Substitutes
35. Hildeby D. (G)	53. Woll J. (G)
Coaches
. Cooper J.	. Tocchet R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
05:35, Tippett O. (2 min),
12:06, Zegras T. (2 min),
16:05, 1 - 0, Point B. (G), Carlson J. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
00:17, 2 - 0, Holmberg P. (G), Mikheyev I. (A), Girgensons Z. (A2)
07:22, 2 - 1, Foerster T. (G), Seeler N. (A), Couturier S. (A2)
09:57, D'Astous C. (2 min),
18:27, Cirelli A. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 0)
02:20, Truchon-Viel J. (5 min),
02:20, Benoit S. (5 min),
03:10, Michkov M. (2 min),
13:33, Hagel B. (2 min),
17:00, 3 - 1, Mikheyev I. (G), Holmberg P. (A),
19:53, 4 - 1, Hagel B. (G), Kucherov N. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 4.

In recent outings, Tampa Bay has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Philadelphia has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Philadelphia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Philadelphia has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Tampa Bay is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Tampa Bay: Gourde Y. (Hip Injury) James D. (Broken Hand).

Confirmed absences for Philadelphia: Barkey D. (Lower-Body Injury) Grebyonkin N. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Tampa Bay: Lilleberg E. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Philadelphia: Ristolainen R. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Tampa Bay has recorded 14 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 74:37 (averaging 3.7:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tampa Bay against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 30:14 goals (averaging 3:1.4 per game).

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.31% Philadelphia Flyers: 1.3%

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 50.01%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Philadelphia Flyers - the odds 3.44 are the expected chance of winning is 27.84%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
03.10.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals	3:1 ✺
01.10.26	New York Rangers - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:1 ✺
26.09.26	Florida Panthers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:3 penalties ✺
24.09.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Florida Panthers	3:5 ✺
22.09.26	Nashville Predators - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWLL
- Philadelphia Flyers
NHL
03.10.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Carolina Hurricanes	2:3 AET ✺
01.10.26	New Jersey Devils - Philadelphia Flyers	3:2 AET ✺
30.09.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Pittsburgh Penguins	0:7 ✺
26.09.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Washington Capitals	1:5 ✺
24.09.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Boston Bruins	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
12.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:5
10.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:7
24.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	3:0
17.03.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	2:0
13.03.25	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:3 penalties
07.11.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	1:2 penalties
09.03.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	7:0

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