Match Info

NHL

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Tampa Bay Lightning		Washington Capitals

	1	X	2
	1.76	4.25	3.75	Watch
	1.75	4.25	3.60
	1.88	4.3	3.5
	1.85	4.43	3.53
	1.83	4.52	3.52	Watch
	1.84	4.4	3.5
	1.91	4.47	3.53
	1.82	4.2	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.19)	4.35 ↑ (4.26)	3.54 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Lightning
51.6%

Draw
21.7%

Washington Capitals
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

22.2%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tampa Bay Lightning's performance.

Washington Capitals has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Washington Capitals might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Washington will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Tampa Bay (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Tampa Bay (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Tampa Bay (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5, OT - Tampa Bay (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Tampa Bay (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
88. Vasilevski A. (G)	79. Lindgren C. (G)
74. Carlson J.	3. Roy M. (A)
90. Moser J.J.	6. Chychrun J.
86. Kucherov N. (A)	43. Wilson T. (A)
21. Point B.	80. Dubois P.
93. Goncalves G.	89. Tuch A.
Line 2
51. D'Astous C.	73. Desharnais V.
77. Hedman V. (C)	44. Hutson C.
59. Guentzel J.	9. Leonard R.
71. Cirelli A.	17. Strome D.
38. Hagel B.	8. Ovechkin A. (C)
Line 3
81. Cernak E.	27. Liljegren T.
27. McDonagh R. (A)	42. Fehervary M.
29. Holmberg P.	25. Kyrou J.
28. Girgensons Z.	62. Protas I.
95. Mikheyev I.	21. Protas A.
Line 4
94. Geekie C.	72. Beauvillier A.
10. Harkins J.	34. Sourdif J.
25. Truchon-Viel J.	22. Jenner B.
Substitutes
35. Hildeby D. (G)	48. Thompson L. (G)
Coaches
. Cooper J.	. Carbery S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
02:26, 1 - 0, D'Astous C. (G), Hagel B. (A), Lilleberg E. (A2)
08:35, Sourdif J. (2 min),
16:30, 2 - 0, Geekie C. (G), Hagel B. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
18:02, McDonagh R. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
02:43, Protas A. (2 min),
07:04, 2 - 1, Sourdif J. (G), Chychrun J. (A), Jenner B. (A2)
13:54, Lilleberg E. (5 min),
13:54, Desharnais V. (5 min),
14:56, Holmberg P. (2 min),
14:56, Chychrun J. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
00:32, Girgensons Z. (2 min),
00:32, Wilson T. (2 min),
08:57, Point B. (2 min),
12:56, Fehervary M. (2 min),
17:55, 3 - 1, Guentzel J. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Carlson J. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 3.

In recent outings, Tampa Bay has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Washington shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Tampa Bay could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tampa Bay holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Tampa Bay: Gourde Y. (Hip Injury) James D. (Broken Hand).

Confirmed absences for Washington: Sandin R. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Tampa Bay has recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 59:60 (averaging 3:3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tampa Bay against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 35:31 goals (averaging 3.5:3.1 per game).

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.31% Washington Capitals: 5.61%

Last Results with these Odds

Washington Capitals - the odds 2.73 are the expected chance of winning is 34.63%, but this team recently wins 48% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
01.10.26	New York Rangers - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:1 ✺
26.09.26	Florida Panthers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:3 penalties ✺
24.09.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Florida Panthers	3:5 ✺
22.09.26	Nashville Predators - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 AET ✺
20.09.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Nashville Predators	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLW
- Washington Capitals
NHL
02.10.26	Carolina Hurricanes - Washington Capitals	2:5 ✺
26.09.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Washington Capitals	1:5 ✺
25.09.26	Washington Capitals - Boston Bruins	3:2 AET ✺
21.09.26	Washington Capitals - Philadelphia Flyers	5:2 ✺
20.09.26	Boston Bruins - Washington Capitals	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
22.11.25	Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:5
08.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals	3:2
14.10.25	Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 OT
01.03.25	Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:3
27.11.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals	4:5
26.10.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals	3:0
13.04.24	Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:2

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