Match Info

MHL

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished


	Tolpar		Loko-76

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.33	3.86	Watch
	1.67	4.33	3.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.95)	4.33 ↑ (4.15)	3.86 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tolpar
55%

Draw
21.2%

Loko-76
23.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.1%

22.1%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

23.1%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tolpar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tolpar's performance.

Loko-76 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Loko-76 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tolpar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loko-76 than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Tolpar - Loko 76 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tolpar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Tolpar will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
99. Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G)	31. Borichev D. (G)
86. Volkov D.	41. Kriklivy M.
76. Pykhtin D.	33. Luzin I.
11. Shaykhlislamov A.	86. Fomin V.
37. Zagrebin M.	21. Klochko A.
28. Akhsyanov B.	82. Sokol L.
Line 2
23. Khafzetdinov A.	8. Zubov D.
98. Zayets D.	43. Gashkov T.
9. Petrenko D.	66. Kiseyev A.
87. Buzdyganov V.	17. Beryozkin I.
75. Shebyakin M.	12. Maslenitsyn M.
Line 3
24. Karasyov M.	42. Semenenko D.
16. Khusainov R.	32. Stramilov I.
67. Khabibullin A.	96. Kuznetsov V.
42. Koltsov N.	15. Nos I.
14. Akhmetov Y.	34. Davydov G.
Line 4
26. Degtyarev M.	3. Isayenko F.
58. Plotnikov D.	58. Bazhenov D.
63. Makarkin A.	71. Malkov N.
18. Kireyev R.	11. Porada I.
74. Adamyan A.	10. Kochetkov A.
Substitutes
94. Tkachyov K. (G)	30. Konopsky S. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
18:19, 1 - 0, Akhsyanov B. (G),
19:15, 2 - 0, Petrenko D. (G), Shebyakin M. (A), Buzdyganov V. (A2)
2nd Period (3 - 0)
07:07, 3 - 0, Volkov D. (G), Petrenko D. (A), Koltsov N. (A2)
07:47, 4 - 0, Kireyev R. (G), Adamyan A. (A), Zayets D. (A2)
13:06, 5 - 0, Zagrebin M. (G), Khafzetdinov A. (A), Akhsyanov B. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 4)
00:28, 5 - 1, Klochko A. (G), Davydov G. (A), Beryozkin I. (A2)
04:41, 6 - 1, Shaykhlislamov A. (G), Akhsyanov B. (A), Pykhtin D. (A2)
10:31, 6 - 2, Bazhenov D. (G), Malkov N. (A), Sokol L. (A2)
17:31, 6 - 3, Malkov N. (G), Sokol L. (A),
18:04, 6 - 4, Maslenitsyn M. (G), Beryozkin I. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tolpar won 3.

Tolpar is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Loko-76 is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Loko-76 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tolpar has had a series of away games.

In this match, Tolpar is considered a favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Tolpar won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 55:48. (average 3.7:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tolpar won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 27:21. (average 3.9:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
20.02.26	Tolpar - AKM Novomoskovsk	5:0 ✺
14.02.26	Kuznetskie Medvedi - Tolpar	3:4 penalties ✺
13.02.26	Kuznetskie Medvedi - Tolpar	3:4 OT ✺
10.02.26	Omskye Yastreby - Tolpar	1:3 ✺
09.02.26	Omskye Yastreby - Tolpar	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWWWL
- Loko-76
MHL
21.02.26	Stalnye Lisy - Loko-76	3:4 penalties ✺
16.02.26	Loko-76 - Tyumensky Legion	6:1 ✺
15.02.26	Loko-76 - Tyumensky Legion	5:2 ✺
12.02.26	Molot Perm - Loko-76	0:5 ✺
10.02.26	Molot Perm - Loko-76	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

MHL
21.10.25	Loko-76 - Tolpar	5:1
16.02.25	Tolpar - Loko-76	0:6
15.02.25	Tolpar - Loko-76	4:3 penalties
29.10.24	Loko-76 - Tolpar	4:7
28.10.24	Loko-76 - Tolpar	0:2
20.12.23	Tolpar - Loko-76	5:4
09.10.23	Loko-76 - Tolpar	4:3

Tolpar - Loko-76