Match Info

NHL

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Action, Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	TVP Sport
Slovakia	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	DAZN, Premier Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Carolina Hurricanes

	1	X	2
	3.9	4.5	1.71	Watch
	3.75	4.33	1.72
	3.7	4.3	1.8
	3.87	4.65	1.75
	3.76	4.62	1.75	Watch
	3.6	4.2	1.7
	3.96	4.62	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.79 ↑ (3.05)	4.46 ↑ (4.37)	1.74 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
24.9%

Draw
21.1%

Carolina Hurricanes
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

22.2%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

21.9%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto Maple Leafs's form might have worsened.

Carolina Hurricanes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carolina Hurricanes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto Maple Leafs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carolina Hurricanes than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carolina Hurricanes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Carolina Hurricanes Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Carolina will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Woll J. (G)	32. Bussi B. (G)
25. Carlo B.	5. Chatfield J.
44. Rielly M. (A)	74. Slavin J. (A)
88. Nylander W. (A)	24. Jarvis S.
91. Tavares J. (A)	20. Aho S. (A)
63. Maccelli M.	37. Svechnikov A.
Line 2
2. Benoit S.	26. Walker S.
22. McCabe J.	19. Miller K.
53. Cowan E.	53. Blake J.
11. Domi M.	22. Stankoven L.
23. Knies M.	71. Hall T.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	21. Nikishin A.
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	6. Reilly M.
89. Robertson N.	48. Martinook J. (A)
29. Groulx B.	11. Staal J. (C)
81. Joshua D.	27. Ehlers N.
Line 4
19. Jarnkrok C.	50. Robinson E.
26. Quillan J.	77. Jankowski M.
18. Lorentz S.	28. Carrier W.
Substitutes
41. Stolarz A. (G)	31. Andersen F. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Brind'Amour R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
03:07, Ekman-Larsson O. (2 min),
11:48, 1 - 0, Joshua D. (G), Groulx B. (A), Maccelli M. (A2)
14:16, Robertson N. (2 min),
14:39, Nikishin A. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 3)
01:57, Carlo B. (2 min),
05:57, 1 - 1, Staal J. (G), Jarvis S. (A), Aho S. (A2)
12:35, 1 - 2, Robinson E. (Penalty Shot),
13:47, 2 - 2, Tavares J. (G), Jarnkrok C. (A), McCabe J. (A2)
16:14, Walker S. (2 min),
17:40, 2 - 3, Miller K. (G),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
10:10, Cowan E. (2 min),
13:50, 3 - 3, Nylander W. (G), Maccelli M. (A),
Overtime (0 - 1)
00:41, 3 - 4, Nikishin A. (G), Jarvis S. (A), Aho S. (A2)

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Carolina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Carolina is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Toronto: Matthews A. (Knee Injury) Tanev C. (Abdominal strain)

There will not play in Carolina: Kochetkov P. (Hip Injury)

There are questionable in Carolina: Gostisbehere S. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 74:66. (average 3.7:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 48:40. (average 4.4:3.6).

Outrights of NHL for now

Carolina Hurricanes: 9.79% Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 31.81%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
17.03.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Islanders	1:3 ✺
15.03.26	Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:4 ✺
14.03.26	Buffalo Sabres - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:2 penalties ✺
12.03.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Anaheim Ducks	6:4 ✺
10.03.26	Montreal Canadiens - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWLWL
- Carolina Hurricanes
NHL
18.03.26	Carolina Hurricanes - Pittsburgh Penguins	6:5 OT ✺
17.03.26	Columbus Blue Jackets - Carolina Hurricanes	5:1 ✺
14.03.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Carolina Hurricanes	2:4 ✺
12.03.26	Carolina Hurricanes - St. Louis Blues	1:3 ✺
10.03.26	Carolina Hurricanes - Pittsburgh Penguins	5:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
04.12.25	Carolina Hurricanes - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:5
09.11.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Carolina Hurricanes	4:5
13.04.25	Carolina Hurricanes - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:4
22.02.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Carolina Hurricanes	6:3
09.01.25	Carolina Hurricanes - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:3
24.03.24	Carolina Hurricanes - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:1
16.03.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Carolina Hurricanes	4:5 penalties

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