Match Info

NHL

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Grand Casino Arena (Saint Paul, MN)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Minnesota Wild		Toronto Maple Leafs

	1	X	2
	1.63	4.5	4.5	Watch
	1.7	4.55	4.3
	1.65	4.93	4.29
	1.65	4.69	4.3	Watch
	1.6	4.2	4
	1.65	4.82	4.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.98)	4.62 ↑ (4.19)	4.33 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Minnesota Wild
57.6%

Draw
20.5%

Toronto Maple Leafs
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

22.6%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

22.5%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Minnesota Wild has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Minnesota Wild's performance.

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toronto Maple Leafs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Minnesota Wild than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Minnesota Wild that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toronto Maple Leafs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	14.3%	21.4%

Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Minnesota will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Toronto will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Minnesota: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5, OT - Minnesota (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, OT - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Minnesota Wild will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Minnesota (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Wallstedt J. (G)	41. Stolarz A. (G)
7. Faber B.	25. Carlo B.
43. Hughes Q.	44. Rielly M.
36. Zuccarello M.	88. Nylander W.
38. Hartman R.	91. Tavares J.
97. Kaprizov K.	63. Maccelli M.
Line 2
46. Spurgeon J.	95. Ekman-Larsson O.
25. Brodin J.	22. McCabe J.
12. Boldy M.	53. Cowan E.
14. Eriksson Ek J.	11. Domi M.
90. Johansson M.	23. Knies M.
Line 3
24. Bogosian Z.	51. Myers P.
5. Middleton J.	2. Benoit S.
91. Tarasenko V.	89. Robertson N.
22. Yurov D.	29. Groulx B.
71. Foligno N.	81. Joshua D.
Line 4
13. Trenin Y.	19. Jarnkrok C.
47. McCarron M.	26. Quillan J.
78. Sturm N.	61. Pezzetta M.
Substitutes
32. Gustavsson F. (G)	60. Woll J. (G)
Coaches
. Hynes J.	. Berube C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (0 - 3)
01:07, 0 - 1, Rielly M. (G), Maccelli M. (A), Tavares J. (A2)
02:19, 0 - 2, Groulx B. (G), Stecher T. (A), Robertson N. (A2)
08:18, 0 - 3, Groulx B. (G),
09:29, Jarnkrok C. (2 min),
14:13, Zuccarello M. (2 min),
14:13, Carlo B. (2 min),
15:05, Kaprizov K. (2 min),
15:05, McCabe J. (2 min),
17:18, Trenin Y. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
04:51, 1 - 3, Tarasenko V. (G), Zuccarello M. (A), Hartman R. (A2)
05:14, 2 - 3, Tarasenko V. (G), Hartman R. (A), Zuccarello M. (A2)
11:22, Robertson N. (2 min),
19:23, 2 - 4, Knies M. (G),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 3.

Recent performances by Minnesota have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toronto's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Minnesota may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Minnesota is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Minnesota: Foligno M. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Toronto: Matthews A. (Knee Injury) Tanev C. (Abdominal strain)

There are questionable in Minnesota: Brink B. (Upper-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 52:54. (average 2.6:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Minnesota won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:23. (average 2.4:2.6).

Outrights of NHL for now

Minnesota Wild: 5.97% Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Minnesota Wild - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 47.77%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Toronto Maple Leafs - the odds 3.19 are the expected chance of winning is 29.65%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Minnesota Wild
NHL
14.03.26	Minnesota Wild - New York Rangers	2:4 ✺
12.03.26	Minnesota Wild - Philadelphia Flyers	2:3 penalties ✺
10.03.26	Minnesota Wild - Utah Mammoth	5:0 ✺
08.03.26	Colorado Avalanche - Minnesota Wild	3:2 penalties ✺
06.03.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Minnesota Wild	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLWLW
- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
14.03.26	Buffalo Sabres - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:2 penalties ✺
12.03.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Anaheim Ducks	6:4 ✺
10.03.26	Montreal Canadiens - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:1 ✺
07.03.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:5 ✺
05.03.26	New York Rangers - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
19.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	3:6
29.01.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	1:3
03.11.24	Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:1 OT
19.11.23	Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT
14.10.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	7:4
24.02.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	2:1 OT
25.11.22	Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4

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