Match Info

NHL

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Voyo
Usa	ESPN USA, NESN Plus, NHL Network, SportsNet Pittsburgh


	Toronto Maple Leafs		New York Islanders

	1	X	2
	2.10	4.10	2.80	Watch
	2.18	4.00	2.70
	2.18	4.20	2.80
	2.18	4.21	2.83
	2.21	4.31	2.71	Watch
	2.20	4.15	2.75
	2.17	4.57	2.84
	2.17	4.10	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.4)	4.21 ↑ (4)	2.77 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
43.5%

Draw
22.5%

New York Islanders
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

23.1%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

New York Islanders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	36.4%	36.4%

Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Islanders Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). NY Islanders will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for NY Islanders: 8% – 64.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Stolarz A. (G)	30. Sorokin I. (G)
43. Raddysh D.	48. Schaefer M. (A)
44. Rielly M. (A)	3. Pelech A.
96. Roslovic J.	21. Palmieri K. (A)
34. Matthews A. (C)	14. Horvat B. (C)
86. Marchenko K.	92. Holmstrom S.
Line 2
8. Tanev C.	6. Pulock R.
22. McCabe J.	28. Romanov A.
88. Nylander W.	10. Schenn B.
91. Tavares J. (A)	64. Ritchie C.
92. McKenna G.	63. Maccelli M.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	77. DeAngelo A.
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	8. Stanley L.
15. Sissons C.	51. Heineman E.
20. Paul N.	44. Pageau J.
53. Cowan E.	73. Eklund V.
Line 4
24. Duhaime B.	11. Duclair A.
73. Blueger T.	53. Cizikas C.
29. Groulx B.	81. Palat O.
Substitutes
72. Bobrovsky S. (G)	40. Varlamov S. (G)
Coaches
. Hiller J.	. DeBoer P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
07:14, 1 - 0, Sissons C. (G), Paul N. (A), Cowan E. (A2)
10:01, Eklund V. (2 min),
11:55, 2 - 0, Cowan E. (G), Roslovic J. (A), Rielly M. (A2)
15:25, Schaefer M. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
03:41, Tavares J. (2 min),
08:35, Paul N. (2 min),
18:14, Schenn B. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
06:59, Marchenko K. (2 min),
10:50, McCabe J. (2 min),
13:32, Maccelli M. (2 min),
14:09, 2 - 1, Heineman E. (G), Horvat B. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 2.

Toronto has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Toronto may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Toronto: Domi M. (Back Injury) Merzlikins E. (Shoulder Injury).

Confirmed absences for NY Islanders: Barzal M. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Toronto: Joshua D. (Abdominal strain) Paul N. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Toronto has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 52:62 (averaging 2.6:3.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Toronto against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 23:24 goals (averaging 2.6:2.7 per game).

Outrights of NHL for now

Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45% New York Islanders: 0.59%

Last Results with these Odds

New York Islanders - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.46%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
29.09.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Montreal Canadiens	2:3 ✺
23.09.26	Ottawa Senators - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:4 ✺
23.09.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators	6:1 ✺
19.09.26	Montreal Canadiens - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:3 AET ✺
19.09.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Montreal Canadiens	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWWLL
- New York Islanders
NHL
26.09.26	New York Islanders - New Jersey Devils	1:4 ✺
25.09.26	New York Islanders - New York Rangers	1:6 ✺
22.09.26	New York Rangers - New York Islanders	3:4 ✺
20.09.26	New Jersey Devils - New York Islanders	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	New York Islanders - Carolina Hurricanes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
09.04.26	New York Islanders - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:3
17.03.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Islanders	1:3
03.01.26	New York Islanders - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:3 OT
02.01.25	New York Islanders - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:2
31.12.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Islanders	3:1
21.12.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Islanders	3:6
05.02.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Islanders	2:3

Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Islanders: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide