Match Info

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: UFC

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Prudential Center (Newark, NJ)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo


	Grant Dawson		Mateusz Rębecki

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Grant Dawson
57.5%

Mateusz Rębecki
42.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grant Dawson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Mateusz Rębecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Dawson will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Rębecki will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rębecki (votes: 1 - 100%).

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Dawson might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the fighters.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grant Dawson
MMA
06.12.25	Grant Dawson - Manuel Torres	Torres M. - 1st Round TKO ✺
18.01.25	Grant Dawson - Carlos Diego Ferreira	Dawson G. win ✺
12.10.24	Grant Dawson - Rafa García	Dawson G. - 2nd Round TKO ✺
01.06.24	Grant Dawson - Joe Solecki	Dawson G. win ✺
07.10.23	Grant Dawson - Bobby Green	Green B. - 1st Round KO ✺
- Mateusz Rębecki
MMA
25.10.25	Ľudovít Klein - Mateusz Rębecki	Klein L. win ✺
02.08.25	Mateusz Rębecki - Chris Duncan	Duncan C. win ✺
26.10.24	Mateusz Rębecki - Myktybek Orolbai	Rebecki M. win ✺
11.05.24	Carlos Diego Ferreira - Mateusz Rębecki	Ferreira D. - 3rd Round TKO ✺
27.04.24	Joel Alvarez - Mateusz Rębecki	Canceled ✺

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

Grant Dawson - Mateusz Rębecki: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide