The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 66.6%
Draw 4.8%
St. George Illawarra Dragons 28.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
58.8%
3.5%
37.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
59.6%
3.5%
37.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles's performance.
St. George Illawarra Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and St. George Illawarra Dragons might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles than the current prediction. (-7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. George Illawarra Dragons than the current prediction. (+8.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that St. George Illawarra Dragons could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles - St. George Illawarra Dragons Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:22
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Trbojevic T. (C)
1. Atkinson D.
2. Saab J.
2. Feagai M.
3. Feledy J.
3. Suli M.
4. Garrick R.
4. Holmes V.
5. Hopoate L.
5. Sloan T.
6. Faulalo C.
6. King-Togia L.
7. Fogarty J.
7. Flanagan K.
8. Laiafi S.
8. Tonga L.
9. Wakeham B.
9. Cook D. (C)
10. Brown N.
10. Couchman T.
11. Olakau'atu H.
11. Egan D.
12. Trbojevic B.
12. Stewart H.
13. Trbojevic J.
13. Couchman R.
Substitutes
14. Simpkin J.
14. Muhleisen C.
15. Lenaz N.
15. Kerr J.
16. Waddell C.
16. Halangahu J.
17. Navale C.
17. Webster J.
18. Large O.
18. Lawrie B.
19. Baker F.
19. Setu T.
Coaches
. Foran K.
. Young D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (26 - 0)
7', Hopoate L. (Try),
10', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
16', Saab J. (Try),
18', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
20', Saab J. (Try),
22', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
23', Garrick R. (Try),
24', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
26', Trbojevic T. (Try),
29', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (18 - 10)
50', Feledy J. (Try),
52', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
56', Faulalo C. (Try),
57', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
61', Olakau'atu H. (Try),
63', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
69', Sloan T. (Try),
69', Holmes V. (Conversion Goal),
74', Hopoate L. (Try),
75', Garrick R. (Missed Conversion),
77', Suli M. (Try),
77', Holmes V. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 17).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manly-Warringah won 3.
Manly-Warringah has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
St. George Illawarra has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Recently, St. George Illawarra has had a series of home games.
In this match, Manly-Warringah is a strong favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Manly-Warringah won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 398:437. (average 19.9:21.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Manly-Warringah won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 160:107. (average 26.7:17.8).
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Trbojevic T. (C) 
Atkinson D. 
Feagai M. 
Suli M. 
King-Togia L. 
Wakeham B. 
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