Match Info

NRL - Round 23

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: HBF Park (Perth)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ


	Melbourne Storm		Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

	1	X	2
	2.25	23	1.67
	2.1	18	1.82
	2.27	20.11	1.71
	2.25		1.67
	2.18	20	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.91)	16.22 ↓ (23.12)	1.72 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Storm
41.3%

Draw
5.6%

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
53%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.5%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

3.8%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne Storm's form might have worsened.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne Storm, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Melbourne Storm - Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Faalogo S.	1. Hopoate L.
2. Tuimalatu-Brown S.	2. Saab J.
4. Meaney N.	3. Koula T.
5. Leo M.	4. Garrick R.
6. Munster C. (C)	5. Wilson B.
7. Watson H.	6. Walsh J.
8. Utoikamanu S.	7. Fogarty J.
9. Wishart T.	8. Paseka T.
10. King J.	9. Wakeham B.
12. Keeley O.	11. Olakau'atu H.
13. Loiero T.	12. Waddell C.
15. Blore S.	13. Trbojevic J. (C)
18. Chan J.	16. Laiafi S.
Substitutes
11. Clarke C.	14. Simpkin J.
14. Toelau T.	15. Brown N.
16. Moale D.	17. Baker F.
17. Hinchey A.	18. Shereb J.
19. Hetherington J.	19. Feledy J.
20. Satrick G.	21. Lenaz N.
22. Waitere M.
Coaches
. Bellamy C.	. Foran K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 14)
4', Wakeham B. (Try),
5', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
22', Koula T. (Try),
24', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
27', Fogarty J. (Penalty Goal),
35', Wishart T. (Try),
36', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
39', Watson H. (Try),
40', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (30 - 6)
46', Meaney N. (Penalty Goal),
54', Meaney N. (Penalty Goal),
57', Keeley O. (Try),
58', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
59', Faalogo S. (Try),
60', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
65', Meaney N. (Penalty Goal),
69', Leo M. (Try),
70', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
73', Tuimalatu-Brown S. (Try),
74', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
78', Wilson B. (Try),
79', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 470:328. (average 23.5:16.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 196:109. (average 21.8:12.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
31.07.26	Melbourne Storm - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	22:36 ✺
24.07.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	28:26 ✺
17.07.26	Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm	14:6 ✺
12.07.26	Melbourne Storm - Gold Coast Titans	22:18 ✺
27.06.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	30:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLWL
- Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Australian NRL
26.07.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	12:48 ✺
19.07.26	Gold Coast Titans - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	38:32 ✺
12.07.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - North Queensland Cowboys	18:19 OT ✺
05.07.26	Parramatta Eels - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	23:14 ✺
27.06.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	30:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
27.06.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	30:4
19.07.25	Melbourne Storm - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	16:18
06.04.25	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	24:48
24.05.24	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	26:20
24.06.23	Melbourne Storm - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	24:6
14.04.23	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	18:8
30.06.22	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	36:30

Melbourne Storm - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide