Match Info
NRL - Round 25Date: 22 August 2026, SaturdayLocation: McDonald Jones Stadium (Newcastle)Referee: Raymond W. (Aus)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV |
 New-zealand | SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2 |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports Action, Sky Sports+ |
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 |
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Newcastle Knights |
|
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles |
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|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.4 |
26 |
3 |
|
 |
1.43 |
17 |
2.95 |
|
 |
1.45 |
18 |
3 |
|
 |
1.39 |
24.44 |
3.13 |
|
 |
1.36 |
|
3.00 |
|
 |
1.35 |
25 |
3.35 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.4 ↑
(1.36) |
18.41
|
3.07 ↑
(3) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 50.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)
- The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Newcastle Knights
65.3% | Draw
5% | Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
29.7% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Newcastle Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (+4.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles than the current prediction. (+0.1%)Newcastle Knights - Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:22 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
1.  Ponga K.
| 1. Trbojevic T.
|
2.  Young D.
| 2. Saab J.
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3. Hunt F.
| 3.  Koula T.
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4. Best B.
| 4. Garrick R.
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5. Marzhew G.
| 5. Hopoate L.
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6. Sharpe F.
| 6. Faulalo C.
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7. Smith S.
| 7. Fogarty J.
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9. Crossland P.
| 8. Laiafi S.
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10. Mooney T.
| 9.  Wakeham B.
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11. McEwen J.
| 10.  Brown N.
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12. Frizell T.
| 11. Olakau'atu H.
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13. Croker M.
| 12. Trbojevic B.
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15. Hopwood C.
| 13. Trbojevic J.
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| Substitutes |
|---|
8. Saifiti J.
| 14. Simpkin J.
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14. Graham H.
| 15. Lenaz N.
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16. Crouch L.
| 16. Waddell C.
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17. Cant T.
| 17. Navale C.
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19. Winter T.
| 18. Feledy J.
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22. Salesa-Leaumoana E.
| 19. Baker F.
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| Coaches |
|---|
. Holbrook J.
| .  Foran K.
|
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (18 - 24)
- 3', Faulalo C. (Try),
- 5', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
- 10', Hunt F. (Try),
- 11', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 15', Marzhew G. (Try),
- 16', Smith S. (Missed Conversion),
- 23', Young D. (Try),
- 25', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 31', Smith S. (Penalty Goal),
- 33', Navale C. (Try),
- 34', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
- 35', Feledy J. (Try),
- 37', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
- 39', Feledy J. (Try),
- 40', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (6 - 20)
- 50', Feledy J. (Try),
- 52', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
- 59', Garrick R. (Try),
- 60', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
- 62', Hunt F. (Try),
- 63', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 69', Saab J. (Try),
- 69', Fogarty J. (Missed Conversion),
- 72', Fogarty J. (Conversion Goal),
- 73', Hopoate L. (Try),
Preview
Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 10).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3.Newcastle has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).Manly-Warringah has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, Newcastle is a strong favorite.We predict that Newcastle will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 329:493. (average 16.5:24.7).Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 151:174. (average 18.9:21.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 15.03.26 | Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Newcastle Knights | 16:36 | | 05.06.25 | Newcastle Knights - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 26:22 OT | | 14.07.24 | Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Newcastle Knights | 44:6 | | 28.05.23 | Newcastle Knights - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 28:18 | | 01.04.23 | Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Newcastle Knights | 32:32 | | 16.07.22 | Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Newcastle Knights | 42:12 | | 07.04.22 | Newcastle Knights - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 6:30 |
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