Match Info

Top 14 - Round 15

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Marcel-Michelin (Clermont-Ferrand)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Clermont		La Rochelle

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.63
	1.47	24	2.7
	1.5	23.41	2.82	Watch
	1.44	23	2.75
	1.55	26	2.52
	1.52	31	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.48)	24.74 ↑ (19)	2.67 ↓ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Clermont
61.6%

Draw
3.7%

La Rochelle
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

4.8%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

4.8%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Clermont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

La Rochelle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Clermont than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Rochelle than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Clermont - La Rochelle Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Clermont (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +8.5 - La Rochelle (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Clermont (votes: 2 - 50%). La Rochelle (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Akhaladze G.	1. Wardi R.
2. Massa B.	2. Latu S.
3. Montagne R.	3. Atonio U.
4. Lanen T.	4. Kante-Samba C.
5. Ceyte T.	5. Boudehent P.
6. Sowakula P.	6. Cancoriet J.
7. Ratuva T.	7. Botia L.
8. Tolofua S.	8. Alldritt G.
9. Zamora L.	9. Couillaud N.
10. Plummer H.	10. Hastoy A.
11. Jurand J.	11. Favre J.
12. Simone I.	12. Seuteni U.
13. Loaloa A.	13. Seguret A.
14. Delguy B.	14. Nowell J.
15. Newsome A.	15. Leyds D.
Substitutes
16. Belkessa T.	16. Lespiaucq-Brettes Q.
17. Lotrian S.	17. Penverne L.
18. Simmons R.	18. Fraindt K.
19. Hemery A.	19. Jegou O.
20. Raffy T.	20. Bosmorin H.
21. Hamdaoui K.	21. West I.
22. Dessaigne L.	22. Niniashvili D.
23. Ojovan C.	23. Kuntelia A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (25 - 10)
5', Hastoy A. (Penalty Goal),
8', Plummer H. (Penalty Goal),
12', Botia L. (Try),
12', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
18', Plummer H. (Penalty Goal),
32', (Penalty Try),
32', Botia L. 🟨,
35', Plummer H. (Try),
35', Plummer H. (Conversion Goal),
37', Jurand J. (Try),
2nd Half (7 - 17)
50', Cancoriet J. 🟨,
54', Tolofua S. (Try),
55', Plummer H. (Conversion Goal),
57', Hastoy A. (Try),
57', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
64', Alldritt G. (Try),
64', West I. (Conversion Goal),
69', Hemery A. 🟨,
79', (Penalty Goal),
80', 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Clermont won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Clermont may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Clermont could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Clermont will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Clermont won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 476:442. (average 23.8:22.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Clermont won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 330:180. (average 30:16.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
7	Stade Rochelais	5	3	0	2	116:119	13
8	Clermont	5	2	0	3	118:146	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASM Clermont Auvergne
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Sharks - Clermont	50:12 ✺
10.01.26	Clermont - Glasgow Warriors	21:33 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Montauban - Clermont	19:34 ✺
27.12.25	Clermont - Bordeaux Bègles	34:19 ✺
20.12.25	Perpignan - Clermont	26:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWWL
- La Rochelle
European Rugby Champions Cup
18.01.26	La Rochelle - Harlequins	17:27 ✺
10.01.26	Leinster - La Rochelle	25:24 ✺
French Top 14
04.01.26	La Rochelle - Toulon	66:0 ✺
28.12.25	Toulouse - La Rochelle	60:14 ✺
20.12.25	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	49:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
13.09.25	La Rochelle - Clermont	27:16
29.03.25	Clermont - La Rochelle	33:19
21.12.24	La Rochelle - Clermont	20:15
03.03.24	La Rochelle - Clermont	42:3
02.09.23	Clermont - La Rochelle	11:10
22.04.23	La Rochelle - Clermont	26:13
25.09.22	Clermont - La Rochelle	22:13

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