Match Info

Top 14 - Round 14

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Marcel-Deflandre (La Rochelle)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	La Rochelle		Toulon

	1	X	2
	1	51	21
	1.01	45	14
	1.02	39.96	18.14	Watch
	1	34	17
	1.01	20	24
	1.01	46	17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.01 ↓ (1.06)	39.33 ↑ (35.21)	18.52 ↑ (11.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-32)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Rochelle
92.6%

Draw
2.4%

Toulon
5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

88.9%

2.7%

8.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Rochelle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

La Rochelle - Toulon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -29.5 - La Rochelle (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. La Rochelle (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 46:14

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaddouri A.	1. Ametlla L.
2. Latu S.	2. Toevalu J.
3. Atonio U.	3. Narmania N.
4. Kante-Samba C.	4. Mezou C.
5. Douglas K.	5. Javakhia G.
6. Jegou O.	6. Sreckovic J.
7. Botia L.	7. Moreau N.
8. Alldritt G. (C)	8. Coulon J.
9. Le Garrec N.	9. Le Bail C. (C)
10. Jurd D.	10. Garbisi P.
11. Niniashvili D.	11. Gracieux M.
12. Favre J.	12. Cowie O.
13. Seuteni U.	13. Smaili M.
14. Nowell J.	14. Rebbadj R.
15. Leyds D.	15. Ferte M.
Substitutes
16. Sutidze N.	16. Gil L.
17. Wardi R.	17. Brennan D.
18. Skelton W.	18. Alainu'uese B.
19. Fraindt K.	19. Abadie E.
20. Andjisseramatchi L.	20. Nonu M.
21. Berjon T.	21. White B.
22. West I.	22. Mechentel B.
23. Kuntelia A.	23. Sorhaindo O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (35 - 0)
7', Favre J. (Try),
7', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
11', Latu S. (Try),
11', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
22', Le Garrec N. (Try),
22', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
31', Latu S. (Try),
31', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
37', Botia L. (Try),
37', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (31 - 0)
42', Niniashvili D. (Try),
42', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
46', Le Garrec N. (Try),
46', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
58', Skelton W. (Try),
61', Fraindt K. (Try),
70', Leyds D. (Try),
70', West I. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Rochelle won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Toulon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, La Rochelle is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, La Rochelle won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 447:412. (average 22.4:20.6).

Including home matches between the teams, La Rochelle won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 228:136. (average 25.3:15.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
7	Stade Rochelais	5	3	0	2	116:119	13
13	RC Toulonnais	5	1	0	4	101:115	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Rochelle
French Top 14
28.12.25	Toulouse - La Rochelle	60:14 ✺
20.12.25	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	49:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Stormers - La Rochelle	42:21 ✺
06.12.25	La Rochelle - Leicester Tigers	39:20 ✺
French Top 14
30.11.25	Section Paloise - La Rochelle	53:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWLWL
- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
28.12.25	Toulon - Perpignan	31:16 ✺
21.12.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulon	46:7 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Toulon - Bath	45:34 ✺
07.12.25	Edinburgh - Toulon	33:20 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Toulon - Montauban	54:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
08.11.25	Toulon - La Rochelle	39:14
26.01.25	Toulon - La Rochelle	45:26
08.09.24	La Rochelle - Toulon	19:15
15.06.24	Toulon - La Rochelle	29:34
28.04.24	La Rochelle - Toulon	27:17
27.01.24	Toulon - La Rochelle	25:23
06.05.23	Toulon - La Rochelle	8:23

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