Match Info

NEW ZEALAND: Bunnings NPC - Round 5

Date: 8 September 2024, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Navigation Homes Stadium (Pukekohe) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	14:35	Stan Sport
New Zealand	16:35	Sky Sport 1
South Africa	06:35	SuperSport Rugby


	Counties Manukau		Northland

	1	X	2
	1.73	21	2.1
	1.76	23	2.13
	1.77	24.39	2.16	Watch
	1.67	23	2.2
	1.73	20	2.1	Watch
	1.76	23	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.17)	22.4 ↓ (24)	2.14 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Counties Manukau
52.9%

Draw
4.1%

Northland
43%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.6%

3.9%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

4.5%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Counties Manukau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Counties Manukau's performance.

Northland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Northland might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Counties Manukau than the current prediction. (-16.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Counties Manukau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northland than the current prediction. (+19.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Northland could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Counties Manukau - Northland Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:31

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaivelata K.	1. Cobb R.
2. Togiatama Z.	2. Moulds M.
3. van Staden K.	3. Apoua C.
4. Furniss W.	4. Craig A.
5. Thompson J.	5. Caird S.
6. Ngatai-Tafau L.	6. Parker S.
7. Church C.	7. Uluinakauvadra S.
8. Motuga A.	8. Rush R.
9. Taumateine J.	9. Nock S.
10. Alatimu A. M.	10. Reihana R.
11. Malimali P.	11. Murray H.
12. Hohepa R.	12. Latu T.
13. Ofa T.	13. Evans C.
14. Gray J.	14. Rush B.
15. Nanai-Seturo E.	15. Trainor J.
Substitutes
16. West-Stevens I.	16. Asiata R.
17. Lindenmuth E.	17. Adams J.
18. Asomua S.	18. Lemisio R.
19. Sotutu H.	19. Hallam-Eames L.
20. Brash A.	20. Woods R.
21. Daniela L.	21. Matich M.
22. Popoali’i G.	22. Milo-Harris L.
23. Toleafoa S.	23. Nichols Q.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (18 - 0)
2', Alatimu A. M. (Try),
21', Ofa T. (Try),
31', Nanai-Seturo E. (Try),
34', Hohepa R. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 14)
57', Apoua C. (Try),
58', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
68', Moulds M. (Try),
69', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
72', Kingi J. (Try),
73', Hohepa R. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Northland could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Counties Manukau won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 146-112.

Including matches at home between the teams Counties Manukau won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 60-64.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Counties Manukau
New Zealand NPC
30.08.24	North Harbour - Counties Manukau	33:36 ✺
23.08.24	Counties Manukau - Tasman	3:48 ✺
18.08.24	Counties Manukau - Waikato	20:26 ✺
14.08.24	Bay of Plenty - Counties Manukau	44:31 ✺
09.08.24	Taranaki - Counties Manukau	31:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WLLLL
- Northland
New Zealand NPC
04.09.24	Waikato - Northland	32:19 ✺
30.08.24	Northland - Southland	26:31 ✺
23.08.24	Hawkes Bay - Northland	55:30 ✺
16.08.24	Northland - Manawatu	35:18 ✺
09.08.24	Canterbury - Northland	34:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
26.09.20	Counties Manukau - Northland	15:24
30.09.18	Counties Manukau - Northland	20:24
30.09.17	Counties Manukau - Northland	25:16
19.09.15	Northland - Counties Manukau	17:42
12.10.12	Northland - Counties Manukau	31:44

Counties Manukau - Northland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide