Match Info

Bunnings NPC - Round 1

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Semenoff Stadium (Whangarei) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	12:05	Stan Sport
New Zealand	14:05	Sky Sport 1
International	02:05	RugbyPass TV


	Northland		Manawatu

	1	X	2
	1.22	21	4.4
	1.22	25.12	4.65	Watch
	1.2	18.51	4
	1.22	30	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.36)	23.66 ↑ (22.64)	4.36 ↑ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 64.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northland
75.2%

Draw
3.9%

Manawatu
20.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.4%

4.1%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Northland's performance.

Manawatu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Manawatu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Northland - Manawatu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 37:27

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 14)
2nd Half (19 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northland won 3.

In this match, Northland is the team to beat.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Northland won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 370:378. (average 28.5:29.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Northland won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 238:182. (average 34:26).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northland
New Zealand NPC
03.10.25	Waikato - Northland	25:19 ✺
27.09.25	Northland - Canterbury	19:19 ✺
20.09.25	North Harbour - Northland	21:22 ✺
11.09.25	Northland - Wellington	43:26 ✺
05.09.25	Otago - Northland	29:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 LTWWL
- Manawatu
New Zealand NPC
04.10.25	Manawatu - Hawkes Bay	10:38 ✺
27.09.25	Counties Manukau - Manawatu	48:24 ✺
21.09.25	Manawatu - Bay of Plenty	19:55 ✺
13.09.25	Auckland - Manawatu	52:29 ✺
05.09.25	Manawatu - Waikato	36:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
16.08.24	Northland - Manawatu	35:18
25.08.23	Manawatu - Northland	31:30
01.10.22	Northland - Manawatu	41:24
24.09.21	Manawatu - Northland	31:19
12.09.20	Northland - Manawatu	43:26
05.09.19	Manawatu - Northland	31:25
14.09.18	Northland - Manawatu	49:19

Northland - Manawatu: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide