Match Info

Premiership Rugby - Round 15

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Sandy Park (Exeter)

Referee: Dickson K. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Exeter Chiefs		Bath

	1	X	2
	2.88	21	1.44
	2.85	22	1.44
	2.99	20.93	1.44	Watch
	2.75	21	1.4
	2.85	14	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (3.2)	19.79 ↓ (20.8)	1.45 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter Chiefs
32.1%

Draw
4.6%

Bath
63.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

4.5%

66.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

4.8%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Bath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter Chiefs than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bath than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Exeter Chiefs - Bath Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Bath will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:34

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sio S.	1. van Wyk F.
2. Norey M.	2. Frost D.
3. Iosefa-Scott J.	3. Griffin A.
4. Jenkins D.	4. Roux Q.
5. Zambonin A.	5. Molony R.
6. Hooper T.	6. Hill T.
7. Tshiunza C.	7. Underhill S.
8. Vintcent R.	8. Barbeary A.
9. Varney S.	9. Spencer B.
10. Skinner H.	10. Russell F.
11. Ridl C.	11. Arundell H.
12. Ikitau L.	12. Butt W.
13. Slade H.	13. Lawrence O.
14. Brown-Bampoe P.	14. Cokanasiga J.
15. Woodburn O.	15. de Glanville T.
Substitutes
. Burger E.	. Carreras S.
. Cairns T.	. Carr-Smith T.
. Dweba J.	. du Toit T.
. Hammersley B.	. Ewels C.
. Haydon-Wood W.	. Obano B.
. Tchumbadze B.	. Pepper G.
. Tuima R.	. Redpath C.
. Worley-Brady F.	. Tuipulotu K.
Coaches
. Baxter R.	. Christoffel van Graan J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (13 - 5)
2', Slade H. (Penalty Goal),
12', Slade H. (Penalty Goal),
13', Roux Q. 🟥,
13', Slade H. ↓, Haydon-Wood W. ↑,
17', Iosefa-Scott J. (Try),
18', Skinner H. (Conversion Goal),
25', Frost D. (Try),
26', Russell F. (Missed Conversion),
26', Haydon-Wood W. ↓, Slade H. ↑,
34', Roux Q. ↓, Ewels C. ↑,
2nd Half (22 - 7)
44', de Glanville T. 🟨,
46', Brown-Bampoe P. (Try),
47', Slade H. (Missed Conversion),
50', Butt W. ↓, Redpath C. ↑,
50', van Wyk F. ↓, Obano B. ↑,
50', Frost D. ↓, Tuipulotu K. ↑,
50', Griffin A. ↓, du Toit T. ↑,
52', Ridl C. 🟨,
53', Underhill S. (Try),
54', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
54', Norey M. ↓, Dweba J. ↑,
63', Ikitau L. (Try),
64', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
64', Sio S. ↓, Burger E. ↑,
64', Iosefa-Scott J. ↓, Tchumbadze B. ↑,
64', de Glanville T. ↓, Carreras S. ↑,
65', Barbeary A. ↓, Pepper G. ↑,
67', Hooper T. ↓, Tuima R. ↑,
71', Spencer B. ↓, Carr-Smith T. ↑,
74', Ridl C. (Try),
75', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
78', Slade H. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership Rugby (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Exeter may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bath is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 512:444. (average 25.6:22.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 323:222. (average 29.4:20.2).

Outrights of English Premiership Rugby for now

Bath: 29.53% Exeter Chiefs: 4.06%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Bath	2	2	0	0	73:51	10
8	Exeter Chiefs	2	0	0	2	58:85	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter Chiefs
Challenge Cup Rugby
02.05.26	Ulster - Exeter Chiefs	29:12 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
26.04.26	Gloucester - Exeter Chiefs	34:31 ✺
18.04.26	Exeter Chiefs - Northampton Saints	28:35 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Exeter Chiefs	41:44 ✺
04.04.26	Exeter Chiefs - Munster	31:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWW
- Bath Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
03.05.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Bath	38:26 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
25.04.26	Northampton Saints - Bath	41:38 ✺
18.04.26	Bath - Harlequins	48:15 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
10.04.26	Bath - Northampton Saints	43:41 ✺
04.04.26	Bath - Saracens	31:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby Cup
21.02.26	Exeter Chiefs - Bath	31:19
English Premiership Rugby
03.01.26	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	33:26
English Premiership Rugby Cup
20.09.25	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	14:23
English Premiership Rugby
19.04.25	Exeter Chiefs - Bath	24:26
English Premiership Rugby Cup
16.03.25	Exeter Chiefs - Bath	14:48
English Premiership Rugby
30.11.24	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	19:15
20.04.24	Exeter Chiefs - Bath	14:26

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