Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Malta	TSN Malta 1
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Ulster		Exeter Chiefs

	1	X	2
	1.57	21	2.5
	1.63	22	2.32
	1.70	19.89	2.26	Watch
	1.67	26	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.92)	22.22 ↑ (21.9)	2.32 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
56.1%

Draw
4.1%

Exeter Chiefs
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

4.2%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

3.9%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ulster's performance.

Exeter Chiefs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Exeter Chiefs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulster than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ulster that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter Chiefs than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Exeter Chiefs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Ulster - Exeter Chiefs Predictions

Users Predictions: Ulster will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Crean S.	1. Sio S.
2. Stewart T.	2. Norey M.
3. O'Toole T.	3. Tchumbadze B.
4. Henderson I. (C)	4. Jenkins D. (C)
5. Izuchukwu C.	5. Zambonin A.
6. McCann D.	6. Hooper T.
7. Timoney N.	7. Tshiunza C.
8. Augustus J.	8. Vintcent R.
9. Doak N.	9. Varney S.
10. Murphy J.	10. Skinner H.
11. Stockdale J.	11. Feyi-Waboso I.
12. McCloskey S.	12. Ikitau L.
13. Postlethwaite J.	13. Slade H.
14. Ward Z.	14. Ridl C.
15. Lowry M.	15. Hammersley B.
Substitutes
16. McCormick J.	16. Dweba J.
17. O’Sullivan E.	17. Burger E.
18. McAllister T.	18. Iosefa-Scott J.
19. Irvine C.	19. Tuima R.
20. Ward B.	20. Worley-Brady F.
21. McKee C.	21. Cairns T.
22. Flannery J.	22. Haydon-Wood W.
23. Mcilroy E.	23. Lilley N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 7)
28', Augustus J. (Try),
28', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),
30', Stockdale J. 🟨,
32', Vintcent R. (Try),
32', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
40+1', Doak N. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (19 - 5)
47', Murphy J. (Try),
48', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),
59', McCann D. (Try),
65', Stewart T. (Try),
67', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),
74', Hammersley B. 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Exeter may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 90:73. (average 30:24.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulster won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 71:42. (average 35.5:21).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Munster - Ulster	41:14 ✺
17.04.26	Ulster - Leinster	21:29 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.04.26	Ulster - La Rochelle	41:24 ✺
04.04.26	Ulster - Ospreys	28:24 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Zebre - Ulster	12:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWWW
- Exeter Chiefs
English Premiership Rugby
26.04.26	Gloucester - Exeter Chiefs	34:31 ✺
18.04.26	Exeter Chiefs - Northampton Saints	28:35 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Exeter Chiefs	41:44 ✺
04.04.26	Exeter Chiefs - Munster	31:21 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
27.03.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - Exeter Chiefs	14:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.25	Ulster - Exeter Chiefs	52:24
15.01.17	Exeter Chiefs - Ulster	31:19
22.10.16	Ulster - Exeter Chiefs	19:18

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